Wednesday, April 13, 2011

ECONOMIC CHANGES GOING ON IN BELIZE !

BELIZE SALARIED CIVIL SERVANTS TRY TO GRAPPLE WITH THE PROBLEM OF TEACHING OUR NEW GENERATION GROWING UP, HOW TO GO INTO ENTREPRENEURIAL TRADE.
by Ray Auxillou, April, 2011.

The emphasis in Belize these days is to fit education and other government run programs in equipping a new generation of young people, to grasp the opportunities in business with trade. Our most likely markets are the Yucatan Peninsular of Mexico, our neighbor Guatemala and also Salvador. Between these three we have a ready market of around 40 million people. Unlike our small domestic market of 313,000 population.
While educated people with a tendency to go for the security of a government salary are dubious teachers of entrepreneurial skills and the need to take risk, save money to raise capital, or the most misunderstood concept of selling shares for cash to invest in an enterprise, this is basically the best we can do, to jump start, or pull our economy out of the doldrums of colonial exploitation thinking. The change is coming slowly. Very slowly, and we have a breather of about 7 to 10 years, thanks to the discovery of oil in small quantities in small ponds under our ground. It is not enough money coming from oil to actually put Belize on a solid economic footing, but it does give us some relief in financing the necessary infra-structure and expansion and everybody HOPES, improve the capability of government services to the public, to provide an economic trade enabling environment. The civil servants overwhelmed in many cases by their case and work loads, complicated by the greed of those who enter politics to feed off the tax revenue trough, like pigs rooting in a mud puddle, have a tough job ahead of them. Much harder than any before tackled by our tiny populated country.
Education levels have been rising as never before in Belize. Giving us a labor pool of thinking people, who have at least learned the basics of how to think, reason and do logical reasoning. They now after graduation can start to learn the real world of economics and trade. Education only teaches you how to go about real learning by trial and error.
I have always in my life found Belizeans very sharp about learning FROM EXAMPLE. You show anybody how to make money, they will copy you in a flash. COPY TIME FOR A SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS IDEA IS USUALLY 18 MONTHS. In the past, this created problems because our local market was too small to allow so much competition in the economic realm. However, the Foreign Affairs Department is starting itself, to learn the necessities of trade, treaties and other international obligations going with exporting things from Belize. Progress has been attained with a Partial Scope Agreement with Guatemala and recently as last week, with Salvador. We also have invitations to trade with the Yucatan Peninsular supplying basic food goods for their tourist trade along the Maya Riveria. As we start to access markets in the Yucatan, Guatemala and Salvador, our export capability spillover could end up in the Arabian Gulf, China, or even India. There are endless permutations and opportunites for our small capacity to produce. Whatever we produce is going to be a NICHE product, based on BRAND NAME, REPUTATION and as a RARE, GOURMET, EXOTIC, COMMODITY, that we will sell to the outside world. We cannot compete otherwise with mass production of large manufacturing capacities of big scale capital, or cheap labor of Asian countries.
The future is bright for our new generation of young people. We need some starter immigrants though, to come into Belize and start small businesses, as examples, so those without education can copy them. Unfortunately, the educated young people mostly do not wish to go into trade, but would rather have the security of a government salary. Sad to say, this has been the lesson learned by many countries, including the USA, and Canada to my knowledge, that it is through FOREIGN immigration INTO BELIZE, that we will find most of our future successful incubator start up entrepreneurs. I hope this lesson is not lost on our future politicians and civil servant types?

Saturday, April 9, 2011

UDP REPORT CARD JUMPS 1 POINT IN BELIZE TO 59%

UDP GOVERNMENT JUMPS TO 59% APPROVAL RATING IN APRIL.


Foreign Minister Hubert Elrington, earns 1 point for government UDP report card.

REASON? For signing a PARTIAL ECONOMIC TRADE AGREEMENT WITH SALVADOR.

Making progress to open their 12 million market to our products, whenever we produce any.

Belize-Salvador PARTIAL SCOPE AGREEMENT GAINS 1 POINT FOR UDP GOVERNMENT

Foreign Minister Hubert Elrington, earns 1 point for government UDP report card.

REASON? For signing a PARTIAL ECONOMIC TRADE AGREEMENT WITH SALVADOR.

Making progress to open their 12 million market to our products, whenever we produce any.
________________________________________

BREAKING NEWS! The Partial Scope Trade Agreement with Salvador is a work in progress and not yet completed, as of April 15, 2011.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Belize - inflamed ear drum and mystery irritant.

Inflamed ear drum and mystery irritant.

Old Age complaints! ( Bunch of old Belizeans compare their illnesses. )

I´ve had four months of medical troubles. Got it narrowed down to an ear drum inflammation and swollen muscles under the ear. Been to 9 doctors. 3 GP´s, 2 dental surgeons, 1 ENT specialist, etc. Had cat scans, ultra sound, couple of x rays. Been treated for bacterial infections by three types of antibiotics, yeast infections, fungus infections, ear drops, sinus cleaners like Benadryl. You name it I´ve tried it. Been to Caye Caulker for 3 days, swimming. No effect on the ear when diving and the salt should have cured anything if there was something to cure? Bone arthritis maybe?
Cant decide which comes first, the ear drum inflammation, or the swollen muscle below and beside the ear. All MD´s are sure there is no infection, just inflammation. But can´t find the irritant. Had my saliva glands pricked and manipulated for blockages and all that stuff.
I use Neuro something other pill, which is a combination of a pain killer that blocks the brain and has a muscle relaxant as well, plus some B vitamins. It works for a good four hours and I have a couple of hours of medium pain and couple of hours of severe pain. It´s the only pill that works. Tried IBOPROFUN and other stuff. Even the pain killer part by itself, which does not work as the ear drum gets inflamed, then messes up the eustachean tube and gives me sore throat, which in turn swells the tendons and muscles on the neck and side of face. After that, you get the excruciating suicide pain, when the swelling presses on the trigeminal nerve. I´ve even looked a few times at cyanide, hanging, nitrogen as ways to quit this lousy quality of life. The pill I am using though gets me through the day, at the rate of 3 to 4 pills per 24 hours. Just found out my regular drug store no longer has any, I´ve used them all up. On my last pill this morning, got to trade the financial markets early and then head for the drugstores and try to get refills.
Plan to see the ENT again, whenever she comes out Cayo way from Belize City. Have a loose lower jaw on that side socket ( tmj ) and one dentist talked me into getting those plates with teeth to fill the gaps and align the jaw, but I´ve been on soft liquid food for six weeks, no chewing and no change at all. Doubt the plates are going to help when I get them this week. There is an irritant somewhere?
The question is at 73 years of age, should one just say Sayonara! With a lousy pain filled quality of life? If so, where is Dr. Korvekian when you need him? ( grin ) I think as long as I can get these pills that work for six hours, I´ll keep trying though.
Kind of want to see the challenge of the financial markets trading through though. Gustavo and I went partners and we each put up $5000 usa to trade. Got the account working April 1st, 2011, but no trade signals yet worth taking with real money. Prior to this, in four months, from Dec to end of March, we made in a funny money trading account 197% on initial capital of $5000. Before that a year of playing with spread trading met failure. Now we are on the cusp of REAL MONEY TRADING, it is a challenge to see if we can do this in reality. ( The Auxillou Family Hedge Fund ) But a life filled with pain, is not worth it. So long as I can control it with meds, OKAAAY!

--- On Wed, 4/6/11, Kobuh wrote:


From: Kobuh
Subject: Re: Bz-Culture: Planning For the Future
To: belize-technical-group@googlegroups.com, "Belize Culture" , "Belize Culture"
Date: Wednesday, April 6, 2011, 8:16 PM

Bwai,
Ah tel yuh nuh; I have osteo arthritis and my shoulder and hip give me heck. My doc tells me don't come back until I'm ready for a shoulder replacement, been through the shots, therapy, whole bit but not ready to have parts removed yet.
Man, I'm just not ready for this next chapter; I have trimmed down, eat better, and work out regularly now.

Bze Kobuh,
The monkeys are running the zoo


From: Alvaro Rosado
To: belize-technical-group@googlegroups.com; Belize Culture ; Belize Culture
Sent: Wed, April 6, 2011 4:25:57 PM
Subject: Bz-Culture: Planning For the Future

I am beginning to feel some aches in some body parts I did not realize existed before so I am exploring possible alternatives for the future. 20 acred gentlemans farm for sale.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

BELIZE CENSUS POPULATION NUMBERS

Population of the country of Belize 312,971 census.

Cayo District population 36,455 people.

Belize District popùlation 89,247

Corozal District population 40,324

Orange Walk District population 45,419

Stann Creek District population 32,166

Toledo District population 30,538

I would guess the Toledo District is the fastest growing district?

BELIZE - TRIP ADVISOR BEING USED MORE AND MORE BY BROKE TOURISTS, THREATENING BAD PUBLICITY IF YOU DON´T GIVE THEM A REFUND.

The NEW TRIP ADVISOR SCAM, by savvy tourist crooks, traveling around the world, cheap as they can, collecting REFUNDS, if they complain and threaten loud enough. The problem is growing larger year by year.



BELIZE - LIFE IN A BANANA REPUBLIC (BLOG )

IN MY OPINION. The life laughs of a Third World woman from Belize.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
CAYE CAULKER- TRIP ADVISOR USED AS A WEAPON BY BAD TOURISTS
I operated a successful Backpackers Hotel business for a dozen years up until I decided that it was no longer fun when the "Trip Advisor threatening type" started showing up. These are the types of tourists that depend on refunds to continue their travels since they really don't want to go home, get a real job again or simply have found out that if you threaten that you will write up bad reviews about the establishment, your chances of a refund is generally good.

A Trip Advisor threat now-a-days is used like a gun pointed at your head!

As of late, I am no longer calm & polite to some of my guests & adopted a ZERO tolerance for bullshit a few years ago. Trip Advisor particular type of threat or any other for that matter, but this is the common one used. In the end, the minute they would threaten to write negative stuff, I would tell them quickly where they could shove their Trip Advisor complaints and sometimes...for good measure.....I would add spice to the complaint they are definitely going to write now...by screaming and yelling at them or throwing them out of my hotel cold turkey - so that their remarks can maybe at least be colorful.

After the first decade of the customer always being right attitude, something snapped in me when I realized how awful, threatening, insulting and in your face some tourists can be. I immediately started to show them the same hospitality.

The second decade of my business found me getting angry at the first sign of a complaint from anyone. At this point, I would just be plain rude and offer them a snide remark, whether their complaint was legit or not. I had become bored of complaints - because of all the non-legit ones that are just plain bogus. I clumped them all into one mental blocked file.
I would tell them to put their complaints into the suggestion box and point to the garbage can at my feet.
Slowly it dawned on me that I had to get out of the business I was in, I couldn't put up with another ignorant tourist another day, just anticipating that thought made it difficult to get out of bed and I lost the zest to deal with them. I'm not out of Tourism all-together, just "retreating to reload" like Sara Palin says.

In my mind, to survive as business owner without allowing these trifiling tourists to drive me insane, to do the best I can, I had to learn to cherish the good tourists who truly understood the hard work you have put into trying to make their stay as pleasant for them, those who offered kind words and praise, & to ignore the bad guests who would come into a pleasant environment and soon ruin the day, the trip, the vacation, not just for themselves by all their bitching, but for everyone else who was having a good time until they showed up!

From my view, for most tourists, they really don't want to be on vacation with this kind of WHINE, rather some wine & cheese on the dock over sunset, prefering if the complainer would just go bury her head in the sand like an ostrich.

Sometimes the complaints are do dumb, about the most insignificant, trifle or insanely pathetic problem they created for a refund that when I roll my eyes back into the socket so hard after hearing it, I risk going blind.

This type of tourist is mainly a backpacker who is travelling for a year or more and is running low on money or has a low monthly budget but wants to do all the fun things that cost money, & everybody else is doing, thus getting creative & learning how to scheme and scam their way into getting "REFUNDS" or free trips and hotel stays.

In the end, I ran the hotel with with a complete indifferent - or - angry attitude towards ANY negativity from tourists. In some instances, I stopped a hair short of wanting to ring a neck or two. Those who were lucky heard my potty mouth curse the biggest of bad words at the top of my lungs simultaneously throwing the left overs of their suitcase and possessions out the gate. The others that stayed nevertheless, had a good time. I'm mad, I'm rabid and I'm opinionated but I could also be the best hostess you ever had...it really depends on the travellers attitude towards their hosts.

There are good and bad business owners & staff, exactly as there are good and bad tourists!

When is their going to be a website "TOURIST ADVISOR" where business owners can warn or post a negative comment about a scheming or conniving tourist willing to use Trip Advisor threats to continue their crimes and be abusive.

I would love to be able to warn my business friends up the Mayan Riviera Coast about a potentially horrible, thieving tourist coming their way.

ATTN: Cozumel Dive Shops
Elizabeth McDonald just left Caye Caulker and is going your way, planning to dive with you - don't take her out!! When she gets back from the trip she will ruin your day, ruin your other divers day by camping at your shop complaining non-stop, she will demand a refund while screaming that she will write you up negatively on Trip Advisor because that soda you offered her did not have the right amount of ice which for example- left her dehydrated all day or some CRAP like that, and unable to enjoy her dive, and therefore you will owe her a full refund of her dive trip!
SPARE yourself the grief & agony buddy!

So Frenchies Diving had such day yesterday with such a tourist as I just described.


Scenario: Divers all head out to the Blue Hole, a deep dive site. 130 ft is the depth you have to go to see the stalagtites and stalagmites in the Blue Hole otherwise you stare at a wall and the dark blue Abyss.

In other words, in a dive briefing, you are told that because of the depth, it is a short dive - 1o minutes and you are to try and follow the Dive Masters and diver's down in the first 3 minutes. IF you cannot equalize after 3 minutes, you should abandon the deep dive and stay closer to the surface with your other Dive Master there to assist you in just such an event (which by the way happens often - divers not being able to equalize I mean) Since there is no time for the others to wait around the deep burning precious air waiting until you can equalize, the other divers must continue the dive without you. This is just the rules of this diving game and the rules are for the safety of ALL the divers.

So little Ms. Bitchy couldn't equalize and had to abort her dive. Jose, one of the best DiveMasters at Frenchies Diving with consistently good reviews, took her back to the boat safely, and now she is willing to tarnish his reputation on Trip Advisor due to NO FAULT of his own and in fact, did the right thing not forceing her to go down and burst an ear drum or worse. The other Dive Master's continued to lead the rest of divers down to 130 ft. but by now, safely on the boat, Ms. Bitchy is a raving Bitch! Boo Hoo Hoo....she didn't get to go all the way down in the Blue Hole and now it's the Dive Master's fault! It's Frenchies Diving fault! In fact, it's probably the whole Universe's fault! BooHooHo she bitches for the rest of the day!

PLOOP! Ms. Bitchy's boyfriend aborts his dive on his own accord and follows them back to the surface & boat. He chose to do so, perhaps out of worry for her, but he chose to do so and abandon his dive, she was in safe hands.

The rest of the day went well for all others on board!

Ms. Bitchy did her other two dives just fine in the sparkling crystal clear waters of Belize,
- watched the spectacular colorful wonders of the underwater life of the second largest Barrier Reef in the world.

-She ate a wonderful home-made Belizean lunch, prepared for the divers with all the Belizean spices blended in to perfection.

The weather was awesome and one of the most beautiful days of the year.

-Her and her boyfriend exhorbitant Reserve Park Entrance Fee was paid at the Half Moon Caye Island where they stopped for lunch which is included in their dive price.

-They enjoyed the remote island of Lighthouse Reef, stopped for lunch break took a walk around the pristine isle and saw the rare Booby Birds nesting.

- The best part, Frenchies Diving is going to pay the $2000 fuel bill for the long haul out there so you can have a good day island hopping the outer cayes & diving.

FASTFORWARD - Back at the Dive Shop. The all day dive trip is over and now they have returned to the Dive Shop. Ms. Bitchy and her boyfriend begin to demand a full refund of their dive trip day because she wanted to dive the Blue Hole dive in particular, since she could not equalize past 5 ft. in the Blue Hole (no one's fault but her own) and the divers continued the dive without her, SHE WANTS A REFUND since her trip was ruined!

WELL I BE DAMNED!!!

OH! Her boyfriend wants a refund too because he willingly abandoned the dive himself, so he didn't see the stalagtites or stalagmites either!

Staff: "We only offer refunds if our equipment is faulty or we cancel due to bad weather or some other fault of our own but not because you couldn't equalize, you got sunburned or seasick or the waves scare you and they are bigger than you hae ever seen etc.... that is the chance you take when you sign up to dive, we complied with our end of the bargain and all the other divers had a wonderful time as the are attesting to right now."

Frenchies Diving Shop kept their position of No Refund for asanine demands, as they should. They are in the right and incurred a lot of expense to have these two on board. If Frenchies Diving wants to get petty or technical, she did dive the Blue Hole, she was down in it up to 5ft to 15 ft submerged. The rest is up to her skills as a diver, she is certified.

So they camped out at the Dive Shop and bitched and moaned FOR HOURS to other potential dives who came to book a trip, to the ones on board; to all the staff, to whoever would listen.

Frenchies Diving staff remained patient in harboring this abuse at it's doorstep.

So they would not leave until their demands were met and they made sure to insult all the "Idiot Locals" around, at least half a dozen of them and so forth it went on into the late until AquaBoy came home for a half hour because he said he did not know what to do with these people and they had become so annoying to everyone on purpose, he couldn't even stand being around his own place of business. After a half hour at home AquaBoy goes back to the Dive Shop and rings me.

Ring!...Ring..! Ring..! Aquaboy: "They are still here and they are still bitching! I've just told them to go tell the Police at the Station since everyone else here has heard it non-stop.

Oh wait!....I think I finally got thru to them, I can see them walking down the dock now. Peace at last!"

The story doesn't end there. They really went to the Police Station to complain.

Ring..! Ring....! Ring....!

AQUABOY: "I see the tourists coming back up the street with a Police, this is going to be a long afternoon, I might be home later than planned!"

So the police come to the Shop and tell AquaBoy the tourists are complaining about being abandoned in the Blue Hole on their dive and want a refund. AquaBoy explains to the Police that "abandon" means to him that they were left there accidentally or intentionally - this was never the case. He then has to explain to the Police that they were at no time "abandoned" since a Dive Master had made sure she went back to the surface safely and was in the boat waiting for the other divers to surface. He also tells them that he delivered to the tourists what he offered, a Dive Day Trip to the Blue Hole and surrounding areas, everything else went according to plan, all other customers are more than satisfied with the trip and only the woman who couldn't equalize has a problem with the trip....well...and now her boyfriend too as he has joined the fight.

The Policeman listens confused. Then he is helpful, serious, negotiator, bounded by law to try and make peace....

POLICE: If you wont give her a refund, she wants you to take them for FREE tomorrow so she can do her dive in the Blue Hole as she desires.

AQUABOY: So what happens if she can't equalize tomorrow again...do I have to take her out every single day until she can equalize......who is going to pay the high park fees, the lunch, the gasoline for their part of the trip....r u kidding me....no way - out of the question!

Also Mr. Officer, can you kindly escort these people away from here before I really do something strange like offer them a FREE DIVE - OFF-MY-DOCK!!!!
And so they left.
__________________________________

THE TRIP ADVISOR THREAT REFUND SCAM!

I´m 73 years old now, but my grown children and grandchildren are in the tourist business. The above story is an old one. 40 years ago, it was the TRAVELLERS CHEQUE SCAM. Tourists going around the world on the cheap, would pay for their hotel and meals, barrier reef scuba dives with travellers cheques and sometimes change them for cash. When they arrived in the next country to Belize, either Mexico, or Guatemala, they would report their TRAVELLERS CHEQUES stolen and get refunds. By the time our travellers cheques entered the banking system and went to settlement, it would be anywhere from 30 days to 60 days later and the travellers cheque companies would not pay off their travellers cheques and our bank in turn deducted it from our account. We eventually learned to refuse to honor or cash travellers cheques.
This is my daughter´s generation and the latest scam fits the times and the internet. TRAVEL ADVISOR and threat of a bad report on TRAVEL ADVISOR is used to demand a REFUND on some pretext of bad service by tourist operators, and you can trace the modus operendi down the coast of Belize, where the scam is done on San Pedro, Caye Caulker, inland hotels and Placentia. They find a fault, and then make such a public nuisance about it, the unsophisticated tourist operator, will sometimes refund their cash, to enable them to continue travelling around the world.
Probably be a good idea to take names, nationalities and report them on TRIP ADVISOR warning people down the tourist routes, that the scam artists are coming with their way with their refund racket.

Testing Coral Barrier Reef problems in Belize on GRANTS.

Testing coral reef growth problems in Belize, to find the problems.


Diving deep into coral science
BY TYLER DUKES - Correspondent
Published in: Science/Technology
Know your scientist

Karl Castillo

Title: Postdoctoral research fellow at UNC-Chapel Hill.

Age: 41.

Family: Married, with a 7-year-old son.

Hobbies: Camping, hiking, fishing, scuba diving, basketball.

Why did you become a scientist? "I am particularly concerned about the transformation in coral reef health that has occurred over the last three decades. I want to help ensure that coral reefs will be around for future generations to enjoy."

More online

To see the PLoS One article:

dx.plos.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0014615
Related Stories
Related Images
IMG_4200.jpg
JUSTIN RIES

Karl Castillo works on his research boat. He hopes to show how conservation groups can organize efforts to protect coral.

coral_science_drilling.jpg
PHOTOS BY JUSTIN RIES - UNC-CHAPEL HILL

UNC-Chapel Hill marine scientist Karl Castillo uses a pneumatic drill to take a core sample from a massive starlet coral (Siderastrea siderea) on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef off the coast of Belize in the western Caribbean.

Karl Castillo was in his early 20s when he sat with his stepfather in a small boat off the coast of southern Belize, prepared to examine the coral below.

What he saw shocked him. In stark contrast to the blue-green sea that insulated the coral, these foundations of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef had been robbed of their color.

A native of Belize, Castillo had grown up snorkeling among the coral near his seaside home. But in 1995, these bleached creatures were slowly starving to death - and he needed to find out why.

"Most people down there didn't know what was happening," Castillo said. "We were just beginning to understand."

The culprit, he later learned, was a mass of warm seawater that moved in from offshore, killing the algae that provides coral with color and nutrients.

"To me, this is hugely important. I grew up living right next to the ocean and seeing not only how much I enjoyed it, but how important it is," Castillo said. "So I tried to dedicate my entire career to seeing if I could assess the different things we see happening to the ocean."

About 15 years later, Castillo returned to the Gulf of Honduras as a postdoctoral researcher at UNC-Chapel Hill with several colleagues to do just that. By measuring the growth of coral up to 100 years old, they suggest in the journal PLoS One that the creatures farthest from shore are more sensitive to environmental threats than their shoreside peers.

"One hundred years ago, they had one of the highest rates of extension. Now it's the lowest," said Justin Ries, an assistant professor of marine science and co-author of the study. "It's not like it's always been low and they just got hit harder."

Although not all coral experts are convinced by his findings, Castillo hopes this will be another step toward understanding how factors such as climate change, pollution and run-off affect coral in different areas of the reef - and how conservation groups can organize their efforts to protect it.

Drilling for data

Massive starlet coral, the hardy species Castillo studied, show their age a lot like trees. Every year, they add a 4- to 6-millimeter layer to their calcium carbonate skeletons in a consistent pattern. Off the coast of Belize, those bands roughly correlate to the wet and dry seasons. Just like with an ancient redwood, scientists can count the rings in a cross-section of a coral skeleton to determine its age.

By studying 13 samples of coral from 19 to 98 years old, UNC researchers were able to measure the size of those rings to gather data on how fast they grew in different stages of their lives.

But collecting coral isn't quite as easy as chopping down a tree and hauling it back to the lab. Using specialized underwater drills attached to compressed air tanks, Castillo's team gathered fragile, 3-foot-long core samples that would yield accurate data.

"The coral is like a dome, so if you drill from the side, your bands might be slanted," Castillo said. "We drilled from the center of the core because we wanted to make sure they were aligned."

Although the original plan was to collect seven cores from each of three regions they sampled - nearshore, backreef and forereef - they ended up with fewer from the two areas closer to shore.

"These are marine protected areas, and in the nearshore, this is closer to where people are, and they don't necessarily want you to take too many samples," Castillo said. "So we just tried to get as much as they would allow us."

Back in Chapel Hill, Castillo's team took X-ray photos of the cores to make the bands easier to detect. They ran those photos through special software to measure distances between the bands, comparing each region's findings with similar cores to ensure they were aligned.

Their findings show that from the 1930s to 2008, forereef coral - farthest from shore - went from the fastest-growing of the three regions to the slowest. Meanwhile, skeletal growth of the coral in the nearshore and backreef zones - those closest to shore - remained relatively stable. That period included documented coral bleaching events in 1995, 1998 and 2005.

Castillo and his team say they believe shoreside coral may be better equipped to tough out new environmental strain because they experience minor stresses such as runoff and changes in temperature throughout their lives, just by virtue of being in shallower water close to the mainland.

"For some reason, I see that they are able to recover after the thermal stress period, while we see that in the forereef, they continue to decline," Castillo said.

No 'nail in the coffin'

But Alina Szmant, a coral expert and professor of marine biology at UNC Wilmington, isn't so sure.

Although she said there's no doubt that reefs in the Caribbean and around the world are in a "terrible state of decline," she's worried there's too much variation in the coral growth rate data to draw conclusions about individual reef zones.

"I don't think the paper puts the nail in the coffin that the forereef corals are doing worse," said Szmant, who was not involved with the research.

In particular, she said the banding patterns of massive starlet coral tend to be messy compared with other species. Outliers in the earlier historical data, such as measurements from 1935 to 1949 showing a huge jump in growth for seaward coral compared to their brethren, also muddy the waters. She said she's not surprised to see forereef coral growing more slowly than it once did, but she's just not convinced by the comparative decline.

"Like most things in science, it's always more complicated," she said. "The differences need to be more substantial before we interpret them."

In the paper itself, Castillo recognizes some of its relative weaknesses - its small sample size, for example. But he hopes further research will confirm his findings and pinpoint the causes of slumping coral health - and how to stop it.

"If they find what we're seeing is true, I think the important thing is we can make recommendations to marine protected area managers," Castillo said. "They have limited resources, so they can allocate their available resources to maybe more rangers out there to minimize additional stresses on forereef coral."
tyler.dukes@gmail.com