ELVIN PENNER GETS FULL CABINET MINISTRY POSITION IN BELIZE CABINET SHUFFLE

Mennonite Elvin Penner
Rene Montero,
CABINET SHUFFLE IN BELIZE

Former Minister of State, Mennonite Western Belize representative, Elvin Penner gets promoted to FULL CABINET POSITION, as Minister of Youth, Sports, Information and Broadcasting. In the current slate of new UDP cabinet ministers, the following are known for their work ethic. Elvin Penner, Rene Montero ( both from Western Belize, Cayo District) and Edmund Castro in Rural Belize North and Anthony Boots Martinez in Port Loyola a suburb of the port Belize City on the East Coast.

BELIZE POLITICS AND LOAN BORROWING BUDGET

Photo of Prime Minister of Belize, Dean Barrow.


BARROW’S MEDIA INTERCHANGE

I got a chance to see more of PM Barrow’s media conference at Radisson Hotel in the port town, down on the coast, on noon time television Friday. Too bad it wasn’t held in the CAPITAL, BELMOPAN of BELIZE, but then the coastal port town political system controls the nation of BELIZE, so the UDP don’t act like they believe in our nation as a sovereignty, but more like some kind of port town personal fiefdom.
There was a sort of fat guy sitting under some TV cameras asking most of the questions and he seemed to be well prepared. Unless he was a patsy submitting agreed political questions, appearing to lead the Prime Minister where he wanted to go? Up to now our Prime Minister has been practicing a lot of delegating authority to his Cabinet Ministers. So both as a Prime Minister and as a Party Leader he has given the rural public around the six districts of Belize, the impression that he is disconnected from nation building, and has not taken on the role of a dynamic strong hand at the helm, type of Prime Minister. This was his media conference, so one has to suppose he got a chance to prep himself for any public questions? At any rate, he acquitted himself fairly well, with an apparent grasp of any issues being discussed on our bz-culture listserve membership debating forum. I find his manner of speaking kind of disconcerting. He speaks so haltingly, hesitant and you can basically see the smoke coming out of his ears, as the wheels of the cogs in his brain are running through various answers to questions from the public, before he opens his mouth. He definitely is not spontaneous. I prefer ELRINGTON who will give you an answer rapidly, and even if it is right or wrong, it doesn’t really matter. The guy is rapid and efficient. Barrow’s verbal pauses are pregnant with apparent legal considerations rotating through the machinery of his brain. You can literally smell the brain oil burning in the gears. The results are well thought out and explained to the public though.
BARROW presented the JALACTE incident with the trespass of one Guatemalan squatter very well and explained how the government was not acting in undue haste. I can appreciate that sort of diplomacy, as it is sort of foreign to my own nature as a past ships captain, when you are not only responsible for the vessel, cargo and crew, or passengers, that you have already run through your mind the emergencies, disasters that can happen and have at hand an immediate rapid series of alternative responses in your brain, for all possible alternatives. In the time, when BARROW is thinking, and his ears are throwing out smoke, you could run a ship right on the reef. In the JALACTE container/house incident I’d have been much more rambunctious, but appreciate his more leisurely and contained approach to this incident. Not my way, but probably a better way to do it, the way the UDP government are doing it. I’d have just given the guy two weeks to move it, or gone in there and towed it away to Jalacte and impounded it. Probably my approach would have been the wrong approach and Barrow’s way is better? The video showed very pretty country down there? Must drive down and camp out and check it out sometime?
I felt on the ICJ Guatemalan Claim issue, he was saving face, sort of backing down. Which is okay and he did say that the Guatemalan President does not have a majority in Congress and probably unlikely to even get agreement to go to a REFERENDUM within the time limits. If they did call a referendum, we in Belize could vote NO! I got the sense that the UDP Cabinet were a majority for a NO REFERENDUM vote, but only BARROW and ELRINGTON, the two lawyers in the political party who are trained skilled dominant debaters, got so confused in the forest at watching the individual trees; they got lost and couldn’t visualize the big picture of the forest, so they were personally convinced at the time, in the nitty gritty, historical legal aspects, rather than the larger moral and ethical aspects, when they accepted the CLAIM argument query from Guatemala. Their legal training probably overwhelmed a CABINET of elected amateurs. It is my belief the way BARROW was wishy washy on the issue and his explanation, that there is now a change of heart in the CABINET. BARROW did go on in various “if , maybes, and buts” to leave one wondering. Sounded like an addictive gambler buying stock in the market just to keep the action going, when he should be in CASH and HOLDING pat. Lots of people gone broke basing decisions on HOPE and LADY LUCK!
Whether BARROW has a finger on the pulse of the nation and the nitty gritty details during the month, or weeks, as he appeared to have in this conference is still in doubt. Certainly he gave the public confidence in his leadership, the way he answered questions from the media at THIS conference. Considering the paucity of media conferences, it does leave one still wondering though, what is the story behind his leadership? Is he in command all the time, or only when he pre-plans a media conference and gets prepped? I’m convinced that for the most part, the seeming delegation of ministerial responsibilities by the Prime Minister is practicing, that all decisions can in the end, be attributed to the UDP CABINET as a whole by majority vote. Which means my area representative Rene Montero has to answer here in Cayo Central for how he votes on Cabinet decisions, if we can find that out?
My wife asked me about the economy and I told her BARROW didn’t really touch on that. There were so many excuses in the speech, using the lack of money for different things, I was left with the impression that the UDP has not planned out their budget last year very well. In fact, I know so! That said, the impression I have, is that BARROW is basing the BORROW and SPEND Keynesian historically failed philosophy he is claiming, is another sort of addictive gamblers choice. Based solely on HOPE ( wishful thinking ) and not on pragmatic dollars and cents. According to the Godfrey Smith article recently analyzing past Belize Prime Ministers, UDP Esquivel was a better Prime Minister than BARROW here is currently, on economical spending by the UDP. If Esquivel is being paid as an advisor by BARROW, then the PM is not listening. When you gamble you must know how to cut your losses, or hold your hand pat. The UDP under BARROW has failed to do those professional things. I’m not sure what the gamble is in this case with the economy and finances? It just seems a loser to me. With $750 million annual revenues, about $250 million of this revenue earmarked for the bond debt interest payments and a government costing $550 million or more. Coupled with a raise in that amount earmarked for the BOND interest payments by 50% soon, and another year after that or so, the BOND interest payments doubles again. When you look at that as a stock market bet, it is one you must turn away from and hold tight. The government revenues only will increase about $70 million for 2008 and probably increase by $83 million extra revenues in 2009 if tourism recovers. The JOKER in the hole is the possibility that more oil fields will be found and start producing, thus rescuing the UDP and all Belizeans from bankruptcy and those bad effects.
The borrowing of $200 million while going somewhat, for needed productive capacity infra-structure, can only be paid for from more borrowed money, unless something fortunate happens. A sort of gamblers choice to let LADY LUCK enter the equation. ( $200 million means it will cost us $500 million over a long term to be paid back ) I’m supposing he must know something about the possibility of increased oil wells and oil exports, rescuing the UDP fiscal management team, that we the public don’t know? That would be nice, but to gamble on LADY LUCK backed by HOPE, isn’t a professional gamblers way of doing things, or handling government loans via credit. Borrowing new credit cards to pay off old credit cards is not a proper financial policy coming out of the UDP Cabinet.
BARROW came out as a fairly good spokesperson leader in this media conference. Some of the things he said, reflected an attitude that was impressive for ethics. The UDP Cabinet solution to the GEGG / Niche contract argument was fair to the business community and restores confidence in the impartiality of government institutions. I’d be more able to judge the situation, if BARROW was having media conferences twice a month though, when you watched him handle surprise questions. Too many ambiguities here, with possible political party manipulation of the situation down in that port town. From the UDP point of view, I would say the media meeting of BARROW with the press was a success.
The thing is; the UDP Cabinet seem to be digging the hole to the Republic of China deeper, trying to go through the center of the Earth and get to their money that way? That hole is going to collapse on the people of Belize, is my own thinking. The way to get out of the financial borrowing hole is to stop digging.
During the PUP term, before last when they did the same BORROW and SPEND type trickle down economics, the PUP sold out the government revenues for my adult generation, my children’s generation ( they are in their productive 40’s ), my grandchildren’s generation, who are only now finishing up their higher education to go into the business place and my great grandchildren’s generation, government tax revenues are forced to go to pay interest on national debts. What the UDP are now doing seems to be a repeat of the PUP, except that the UDP are borrowing and spending the government revenues for my great, great, grandchildrens generation and great, great, great grandchildrens generation and so on. The government tax revenues on average increase about 10% a year through population growth. That means there are cycles within this average to achieve average government revenue growth, and it looks like we are on a down cycle for the next three or four years, unless oil finds increase, and oil exports take up the slack. This means on this down cycle, government revenues are increasing at a slower rate, perhaps 6% instead of 10% and not even estimating any future economic contraction when the debts become too high to maintain out of government tax revenues, and the UDP borrowing will not be met, causing a financial debacle either for this UDP final years, or whoever has the five year term after this. The debt payments are gobbling up more of our available annual tax revenues faster than we can expand our economy and revenues. Which sooner or later means bankruptcy.
The UDP BORROWING policy has serious minded fiscal people very worried. If Godfrey Smith’s recent article on the management characteristics of past UDP, PM Esquivel are true, I cannot imagine UDP financial advisor Esquivel would be going along with this UDP CABINET financial policies? It is certain BARROW is not paying Esquivel any mind, for the tax money we are paying him as an advisor to BARROW.
My own opinion on all this first year of the UDP, is that the UDP CABINET is GAMBLING with our Belizean Future tax revenues and simply not practicing proper fiscal planning and management principles that guarantee success. Unless a lucky oil find occurs, we are looking at bankruptcy again.

DEBATE ON UDP CABINET BUDGETING FOR 2009

Firstly, how about passing a balanced budget amendment-they can't spend more than they take in. Reserves are critical as you mentioned for unforeseen national disasters and hardships. Another items would be to use some monies from the budget for working on infrastructure projects-most importantly roads and bridges to improve commerce and transportation. This would at least create jobs and the people hired would spend their salaries sending the money back into the economy to create more jobs. How about finally using some budget funds to make the lands department transparent with a national cadastral system. The monies earned from the sale of national lands might really go the national budget instead of to personal cronies/lands department and ministers pockets. The land title mess we are in nationally would be greatly reduced. Hey, maybe we could even get a deed upon full payment for national lands in less than 3 -15 yrs as it stands under the current system. The government could also provide tax rebate/relef incentives to companies manufacturing new products or setting up factories in Belize as long as they create a certain amount of jobs. The idea is to become more self reliant and less import reliant. Unfortunately most of the budget will go to foreign debt payments as Belize is chronically with a negative trade balance. We import more than we export. Some industries Belize could use that pay well-biotechnology (e;g; Orchid or other plant cloning for export as liners/starter plants or breeding out bad traits in plants), IT/technology, Call Service Centers, Making medicines for export. Coming from Caye Caulker I also wondered why there are no artist/dance/folkloric type troupes one can hire to perform for the tourist trade on a regular show basis to promote our culture, etc.-this could create jobs. For cost saving measures, one could cut down on the Government/Belmopan Staff in the various offices or set goals, timelines and minimum standards for all government employee jobs with how much they should accomplish in a day to be considered productive. If they can't meet their goal eliminate the position and save that salary. Just some ideas/ways and means to a balanced budget.

Sharon Urscheler SUrscheler@msn.com



Date: Mon, 5 Jan 2009 08:22:33 -0800
From: hillviewhacienda@yahoo.com
To: surscheler@msn.com
Subject: [Western Belize Happenings!] BUDGET CRITIQUE OF OUR UDP GOVERNMENT

THE CRITIQUE LAST WEEK ON THE UDP AND WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

What would you do if you were the CABINET and the UDP?
The critique last week went into the BORROW AND SPEND DEBT ECONOMICS POLICY OF THIS UDP GOVERNMENT, forecasting dire financial bankruptcy consequences due to poor budgetary planning.
In planning the budget for 2009, I would as a matter of course, plan for the WORST CASE SCENARIO! What kind of worse case scenario can you envisage to hit our economy of the country in 2009?
For starters, we live in HURRICANE ALLEY, right at the end. I personally would plan and allow funds to be set aside for TWO hurricane strikes. Also, we now know from experience, that with the deforestation of the nearby PETEN in Guatemala, that we can, during a monstrous rainfall, expect FLOODING. Right off the bat, any 2009 budget should have 300 million dollars set aside to ECONOMIC LOSSES that could be expected from these high probability events. A worse case scenario then for NATURAL DISASTERS would allocate funds be put in reserve to recover from such events and economic losses.
The next thing, our economy is a bit diversified, but our economy is based on remittances, bananas, sugar, fisheries, oil and agriculture in general. We could assume therefore, due to outside world events over which we have no control, we could lose one of these pillars of our government and economic revenues. So, it is only wise to set aside some reserves to cover the economic losses if we were to lose one of our economic legs that support our nation and government costs.
Having done that, those reserves could sit there if never used, until next year and give us some leeway for spending in 2010. If for any disastrous reason, we had to use those funds, we would have them.
The other thing is to project government revenues for 2009. Until we get the STATE OF THE NATION report from our Prime Minister later in January, we cannot draw too many conclusions about that. The mistake both politicians and bureaucrats make often, is to set too high an estimate of government revenues. It is wiser to take the least expected projections and work within that. If you should have money left over by the end of 2009, that is to the good and would go well toward building solvency, or resolving temporary budget shortfalls that might be needed.
What would you recommend for budget planning for this UDP government? After all, they are YOUR GOVERNMENT and so far, they have shown little skill at budget planning with budget revenues. THEY need your ideas and advice! TELL THEM WHAT YOU WOULD PLAN AND DO WITH GOVERNMENT REVENUES.

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Posted By Western Belize Happenings! to Western Belize Happenings! at 1/05/2009 08:21:00 AM

Social Justice sought in Belize!

THE STRUGGLE FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE IN BELIZE!



Belizeans are battered from all sides with arguments of fighting poverty, universal education and healthcare, housing and jobs. In this first decade of the 21 st Century, we are battered by countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua, who claim they have the solutions to finding the solutions to social justice. We also watch with interest the developments in the USA of the first elected LEFTIST President ever and whatever may come of it? In a so-called Western capitalist system that seems successful, but dysfunctional.

Human nature effects all individuals in one form or another. Emotions of ambition, status, greed, jealousy, envy, laziness and those who are unable to defend themselves, or compete because of disabilities. How to deal with these conflicting human drives and achieve utopian ideals of social justice has kept mankind busy for ten thousand years.

What lessons we have learned from history, is that; a one party state becomes a tyranny and cruel vicious dictatorship. The one party state always feeds on itself, like a rabid dog. That the one party state is created by ambitious power mad individuals, who though professing the intent and desire to create social justice, by cutting through the complications inherently found in multi-party governing systems, ends up being brutally worse than any system used before. On the other hand, the Capitalist system, multi-party system so called, can also have excesses of greed and abuses of power. These are usually much less than one party socialist systems.

There are undoubtedly many philosophical arguments about methods of achieving social justice throughout the countries and governing systems of the world. Needless to say, we in Belize are neither big enough to consider many of them, or rich enough. We can though, pull out of the myriad methods having been tried by other countries and systems, the nuggets of ideas that have proven to work.

Here are some of those ideas that have worked better than others, historically speaking. Centralization and the one party state concept, whether a socialist, monarchy, dictatorship, or communist, have failed; which leave us with the concept, that decentralization and local home rule, in a multi-party configuration gives the best results. NEVER satisfactory, but better than anything else so far achieved. More debating voices make for better decision making. Not always, but for the most part yes!

Concentration of power, or centralization, inevitably brings huge abuses and the masses of the population of all walks of life, will suffer. The only growth aspects in economics for centralized systems are the growth of the bureaucracy and creation of a class system defined by political party membership. A new ruling monarchy by a different name.

Excessive taxation can ruin a national economy. Taxation must be continuously fine tuned. Tweaked as it were. Taxation is probably the best method of achieving social justice if the taxes are so applied appropriately. The Scandinavian countries have done fairly well with socialization fed by taxation. The difference between Belize and Scandinavian countries are that they are manufacturing and huge oil producing countries and Belize is still only an agrarian society without any manufacturing capability. Manufacturing seems to pay better than agriculture for large populations. In Belize, the small population is doing well without manufacturing, but that situation will change over time.

Government should be from the bottom up, meaning from many small local government systems and not from the top down by a small political party elite of rulers. This we have learned from history, particularly over the last century. A party governing system should be for the most part simply managers of bottom up, desires. The faults here are often by bureaucratic regulation, laws and institutional rules that act as laws, created by an intellectual elite, either within a governing party, or advising a party, usually from urban centers. A salaried bureaucratic intellectual group, deciding what is best according to their myopic idealistic theoretical views, rather than the market place.

The majority of people work to a self interest type motivation. They need to see the fruits of their labor. Whether that be for PROFIT and what they perceive as a better materialistic life, or are just among the 2% of individuals driven by a strong work ethic and enjoy such a work motivated challenging life. The self interest may be as simple as the current debate between our southern rural Mayan agriculturalists simple rural life style and that of the more materialistic city dwellers of the port town, Belize City, the latter who desire more taxation on the small farmer, to support their chosen life styles of materialism.

Agriculture production from the viewpoint of economic and food self sufficiency is best achieved through the small farmer, the world historical statistical production evidence indicates. Corporate farms work, as has been proven in Canada, Australia and the USA. They do however lack many of the social justice inputs into the rural society found from small farmers, who may have different ambitions than desired by intellectual bureaucratic political party people whose goal may be more taxes, or easier tax collecting. The State farm systems of the communist centralized planning socialist countries, severely under perform the profit motive type production of small farmers, all statistics over the last century worldwide show. Ownership of land and the choice of selling the crop based on supply and demand prices, work wonders for production. Central planning by politicians and bureaucrats has proven historically to be disastrous to a national economy.

Belize has a pretty good multi-party system. It has flaws, such as; that with so few government jobs available, each winning party uses those jobs as rewards for party supporters. We should probably move to a double blind, system of civil service exams for each permanent government job, in which the examiner and judge does not know the identity of the applicants. This was discussed many years ago on the internet based BELIZE DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, but neither political party in Belize wish to give up the spoils, of awarding government jobs. This is certainly a fault in our governing system. Our governing efficiency and abilities are severely curtailed by pandering to political party greed. We pay for this political greed in poor economic performance on a national basis.

In the arguments for and against methods of social justice achievement, recent talks with Venezuela, hell bent on resurrecting ancient failed Soviet and Eastern Block methodologies using centralization, one party rule, and war against their middle class who base their activities on the incentive of profit; has shown Belizeans how we differ in methods. It is true, that GRANT AID, primarily from Taiwan, the FAO of the UN, some from the EU and a little bit from oil rich Venezuela seeking geo-political voting leverage in the International arena, has helped Belize achieve some social programs, we could not with our small population scattered all over this nation otherwise achieve. For those with financial plenty and a philosophy of giving, we are sincerely grateful. Politicians in most places in the world always spend more than is available. Ours are no different unfortunately and currently the ownership of the economy of Belize to foreign bankers is increasing under a new UDP government. Recent numbers show our debt ratio has moved from 76% of GDP to 95% of GDP. The goal of Belize should be of course to mimic the European Union and our debt ratio needs to be below 3% of GDP.

Trade, a thing that is still minimal for Belize with the outside world, has been shown to be rather impractical and unprofitable with both the CARICOM assorted island countries, despite preferential tariff encouragement and now with Venezuela. Venezuela, a large country with the money to pay for imports unlike our fellow CARICOM small market countries, has embarked on a pogrom of attacking and destroying their middle class like a repeat of the Eastern Bloc countries did back in the 1950’s. The ALBA trade deal does not seem practical for Belizean producers and exporters. Most of it is based on a government to government barter system and is primarily geared to achieving geo-political strength in the International forums through client small state votes that can be controlled by Venezuela. Belize needs export trade for CASH, to do any good from the social sense of improving our own society. The contribution that Venezuela is giving Belize has come mostly in the form of small GRANTS for specific social projects. Very much appreciated and creating good will. It is doubtful though, if either the bureaucrats, or the political party in power will agree to any type of barter type trade bloc and sign away Belizean International voting Independence in return for small favors. The HEARTLAND OF BELIZE have pretty much already abandoned both CARICOM and VENEZUELA as potential trading partners. There just is no money in it to pay the bills. Our attention now in Western Belize for would be export producers, is turning to Mexico, Central America and the FAR EAST, as possible export markets for new products in the agro processing field. We would dearly like to get into small manufacturing as well, as our population grows, if for no other reason than to provide jobs. The orientation of both our senior bureaucracy and the politicians seem to be aligned in the same direction, as the private sector here. Which is a massive change in thinking and policies.

One thing can be said for the current course. Living standards are rising rapidly in Western Belize along with labor saving devices; like washing machines, refrigerators, cars and trucks, inside plumbing, running water from a tap ( albeit cold ), etc. The days of fire heart wood cooking are nearly over. As are kerosene lamps and stoves. I would dearly like to buy an old kerosene oven that is portable and fit over a two burner butane hot plate type of cooking device. They are no longer sold either here, or in Guatemala unfortunately. A sign of rising material living standards. We must be doing something right?