PREPARING FOR THE BELIZE DEPRESSION OF 2009 – 2012
There is an old cliché, that says when you prepare for the worst, the worst NEVER happens! The outside world is already in a confirmed RECESSION now two years old and in Belize the effects are just starting to be felt. We seem to be running about a year behind the outside world schedule. That said, there is definitely a DEPRESSION coming in 2009 for the outside world and we can see vast industrialized economies, who are our biggest markets and sources of tourists unwinding into DEPRESSION.
It is something to do with psychology I suppose, but if our UDP CABINET prepares for the worst it probably will never happen. We lost a big chunk of our productive economy during 2008, which has been replaced by increased oil exports, even at a third lower prices. Tourism is going to take a big hit during 2009, the early visitor indicators show. Since tourism is one of the pillars of our government revenues, then that presupposes projections for general tax revenues for 2009 will drop drastically. It makes sense for our UDP CABINET to revise the projected government revenues for 2009 and 2010 downwards, from expectations.
What then are the WORST CASE SCENARIOS for our UDP CABINET during the 2009 and 2010 period, during the effects of the world depression?
Probably, the UDP CABINET should revise government budget spending downward a third? Since we are talking WORST CASE PREPARATION, then perhaps it would be smarter to drop revenue estimates by 50%.
We have had two hurricanes in ONE YEAR before, so let us estimate two hurricanes for 2009. At a cost of $150 million each in government costs.
We are getting more and more floods and have had two floods in one year, so let us throw two flood disasters into the WORST CASE SCENARIO pot, and plan for that as well, along with associated economic losses and costs.
ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM REDUCED TOURISM ACTIVITY looks like tourist revenues may actually drop over 50%, perhaps 75%? There is a lot associated economic activity with loss of tourism activity, in the general community.
Lastly but not leastly, with NEW reduced government tax revenues and lower expected local economic activity, then our fixed FOREIGN LOAN REPAYMENT SCHEDULES are going to effect the amounts of money available to maintain the government of Belize activities. For 2009, the $150 million borrowed in 2008 by the UDP Cabinet, can be spent and will create an articial blip on our GDP figure. It is not productive directly as a spending, but will create local internal economic circulation activity.
It looks like revising government tax revenues for 2009 and 2010 downward from previous estimates, by a third would be appropriate? This can be refigured in 2010 as projections and performance unfolds. We are not looking at rosy estimates of economic revenues here, but at what we consider to be the WORST CASE scenarios. This means the government budgets need to be re-adjusted to fit the revised situation as we MIGHT experience it. Go to it, UDP CABINET, do your job.
Generally speaking, it is times like these; that the National Debt looms more and more, like a chain and ball tied around our neck, as these FIXED REPAYMENT COSTS become larger in proportion to the much reduced expected available government tax revenues. We await with much interest the UDP Government delayed STATE OF THE NATION speech, for not only the economic figures the private sector needs for proper annual planning economic activity, but also the budget presentation for government size and activity. The question in my mind is; will the BARROW government prepare a budget for a DEPRESSION year WORST CASE SCENARIO, or will he let his civil servants prepare a budget based on more favorable, over optimistic artificial figures, as is usual, and which always get our governments in trouble.
The thing to remember is; if you prepare for a WORST CASE SCENARIO, the physcology of doing so, will actually prevent you from making stupid mistakes if these things happen and if not, then you end up looking like roses at the end of 2009 going into 2010 with a darned surplus in a GUARANTEED WORLD DEPRESSION YEAR. That is a pretty good economic and political outcome to be desired, I would think?
Showing posts with label Belize economics Belize politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Belize economics Belize politics. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Social Justice sought in Belize!
THE STRUGGLE FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE IN BELIZE!
Belizeans are battered from all sides with arguments of fighting poverty, universal education and healthcare, housing and jobs. In this first decade of the 21 st Century, we are battered by countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua, who claim they have the solutions to finding the solutions to social justice. We also watch with interest the developments in the USA of the first elected LEFTIST President ever and whatever may come of it? In a so-called Western capitalist system that seems successful, but dysfunctional.
Human nature effects all individuals in one form or another. Emotions of ambition, status, greed, jealousy, envy, laziness and those who are unable to defend themselves, or compete because of disabilities. How to deal with these conflicting human drives and achieve utopian ideals of social justice has kept mankind busy for ten thousand years.
What lessons we have learned from history, is that; a one party state becomes a tyranny and cruel vicious dictatorship. The one party state always feeds on itself, like a rabid dog. That the one party state is created by ambitious power mad individuals, who though professing the intent and desire to create social justice, by cutting through the complications inherently found in multi-party governing systems, ends up being brutally worse than any system used before. On the other hand, the Capitalist system, multi-party system so called, can also have excesses of greed and abuses of power. These are usually much less than one party socialist systems.
There are undoubtedly many philosophical arguments about methods of achieving social justice throughout the countries and governing systems of the world. Needless to say, we in Belize are neither big enough to consider many of them, or rich enough. We can though, pull out of the myriad methods having been tried by other countries and systems, the nuggets of ideas that have proven to work.
Here are some of those ideas that have worked better than others, historically speaking. Centralization and the one party state concept, whether a socialist, monarchy, dictatorship, or communist, have failed; which leave us with the concept, that decentralization and local home rule, in a multi-party configuration gives the best results. NEVER satisfactory, but better than anything else so far achieved. More debating voices make for better decision making. Not always, but for the most part yes!
Concentration of power, or centralization, inevitably brings huge abuses and the masses of the population of all walks of life, will suffer. The only growth aspects in economics for centralized systems are the growth of the bureaucracy and creation of a class system defined by political party membership. A new ruling monarchy by a different name.
Excessive taxation can ruin a national economy. Taxation must be continuously fine tuned. Tweaked as it were. Taxation is probably the best method of achieving social justice if the taxes are so applied appropriately. The Scandinavian countries have done fairly well with socialization fed by taxation. The difference between Belize and Scandinavian countries are that they are manufacturing and huge oil producing countries and Belize is still only an agrarian society without any manufacturing capability. Manufacturing seems to pay better than agriculture for large populations. In Belize, the small population is doing well without manufacturing, but that situation will change over time.
Government should be from the bottom up, meaning from many small local government systems and not from the top down by a small political party elite of rulers. This we have learned from history, particularly over the last century. A party governing system should be for the most part simply managers of bottom up, desires. The faults here are often by bureaucratic regulation, laws and institutional rules that act as laws, created by an intellectual elite, either within a governing party, or advising a party, usually from urban centers. A salaried bureaucratic intellectual group, deciding what is best according to their myopic idealistic theoretical views, rather than the market place.
The majority of people work to a self interest type motivation. They need to see the fruits of their labor. Whether that be for PROFIT and what they perceive as a better materialistic life, or are just among the 2% of individuals driven by a strong work ethic and enjoy such a work motivated challenging life. The self interest may be as simple as the current debate between our southern rural Mayan agriculturalists simple rural life style and that of the more materialistic city dwellers of the port town, Belize City, the latter who desire more taxation on the small farmer, to support their chosen life styles of materialism.
Agriculture production from the viewpoint of economic and food self sufficiency is best achieved through the small farmer, the world historical statistical production evidence indicates. Corporate farms work, as has been proven in Canada, Australia and the USA. They do however lack many of the social justice inputs into the rural society found from small farmers, who may have different ambitions than desired by intellectual bureaucratic political party people whose goal may be more taxes, or easier tax collecting. The State farm systems of the communist centralized planning socialist countries, severely under perform the profit motive type production of small farmers, all statistics over the last century worldwide show. Ownership of land and the choice of selling the crop based on supply and demand prices, work wonders for production. Central planning by politicians and bureaucrats has proven historically to be disastrous to a national economy.
Belize has a pretty good multi-party system. It has flaws, such as; that with so few government jobs available, each winning party uses those jobs as rewards for party supporters. We should probably move to a double blind, system of civil service exams for each permanent government job, in which the examiner and judge does not know the identity of the applicants. This was discussed many years ago on the internet based BELIZE DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, but neither political party in Belize wish to give up the spoils, of awarding government jobs. This is certainly a fault in our governing system. Our governing efficiency and abilities are severely curtailed by pandering to political party greed. We pay for this political greed in poor economic performance on a national basis.
In the arguments for and against methods of social justice achievement, recent talks with Venezuela, hell bent on resurrecting ancient failed Soviet and Eastern Block methodologies using centralization, one party rule, and war against their middle class who base their activities on the incentive of profit; has shown Belizeans how we differ in methods. It is true, that GRANT AID, primarily from Taiwan, the FAO of the UN, some from the EU and a little bit from oil rich Venezuela seeking geo-political voting leverage in the International arena, has helped Belize achieve some social programs, we could not with our small population scattered all over this nation otherwise achieve. For those with financial plenty and a philosophy of giving, we are sincerely grateful. Politicians in most places in the world always spend more than is available. Ours are no different unfortunately and currently the ownership of the economy of Belize to foreign bankers is increasing under a new UDP government. Recent numbers show our debt ratio has moved from 76% of GDP to 95% of GDP. The goal of Belize should be of course to mimic the European Union and our debt ratio needs to be below 3% of GDP.
Trade, a thing that is still minimal for Belize with the outside world, has been shown to be rather impractical and unprofitable with both the CARICOM assorted island countries, despite preferential tariff encouragement and now with Venezuela. Venezuela, a large country with the money to pay for imports unlike our fellow CARICOM small market countries, has embarked on a pogrom of attacking and destroying their middle class like a repeat of the Eastern Bloc countries did back in the 1950’s. The ALBA trade deal does not seem practical for Belizean producers and exporters. Most of it is based on a government to government barter system and is primarily geared to achieving geo-political strength in the International forums through client small state votes that can be controlled by Venezuela. Belize needs export trade for CASH, to do any good from the social sense of improving our own society. The contribution that Venezuela is giving Belize has come mostly in the form of small GRANTS for specific social projects. Very much appreciated and creating good will. It is doubtful though, if either the bureaucrats, or the political party in power will agree to any type of barter type trade bloc and sign away Belizean International voting Independence in return for small favors. The HEARTLAND OF BELIZE have pretty much already abandoned both CARICOM and VENEZUELA as potential trading partners. There just is no money in it to pay the bills. Our attention now in Western Belize for would be export producers, is turning to Mexico, Central America and the FAR EAST, as possible export markets for new products in the agro processing field. We would dearly like to get into small manufacturing as well, as our population grows, if for no other reason than to provide jobs. The orientation of both our senior bureaucracy and the politicians seem to be aligned in the same direction, as the private sector here. Which is a massive change in thinking and policies.
One thing can be said for the current course. Living standards are rising rapidly in Western Belize along with labor saving devices; like washing machines, refrigerators, cars and trucks, inside plumbing, running water from a tap ( albeit cold ), etc. The days of fire heart wood cooking are nearly over. As are kerosene lamps and stoves. I would dearly like to buy an old kerosene oven that is portable and fit over a two burner butane hot plate type of cooking device. They are no longer sold either here, or in Guatemala unfortunately. A sign of rising material living standards. We must be doing something right?
Belizeans are battered from all sides with arguments of fighting poverty, universal education and healthcare, housing and jobs. In this first decade of the 21 st Century, we are battered by countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua, who claim they have the solutions to finding the solutions to social justice. We also watch with interest the developments in the USA of the first elected LEFTIST President ever and whatever may come of it? In a so-called Western capitalist system that seems successful, but dysfunctional.
Human nature effects all individuals in one form or another. Emotions of ambition, status, greed, jealousy, envy, laziness and those who are unable to defend themselves, or compete because of disabilities. How to deal with these conflicting human drives and achieve utopian ideals of social justice has kept mankind busy for ten thousand years.
What lessons we have learned from history, is that; a one party state becomes a tyranny and cruel vicious dictatorship. The one party state always feeds on itself, like a rabid dog. That the one party state is created by ambitious power mad individuals, who though professing the intent and desire to create social justice, by cutting through the complications inherently found in multi-party governing systems, ends up being brutally worse than any system used before. On the other hand, the Capitalist system, multi-party system so called, can also have excesses of greed and abuses of power. These are usually much less than one party socialist systems.
There are undoubtedly many philosophical arguments about methods of achieving social justice throughout the countries and governing systems of the world. Needless to say, we in Belize are neither big enough to consider many of them, or rich enough. We can though, pull out of the myriad methods having been tried by other countries and systems, the nuggets of ideas that have proven to work.
Here are some of those ideas that have worked better than others, historically speaking. Centralization and the one party state concept, whether a socialist, monarchy, dictatorship, or communist, have failed; which leave us with the concept, that decentralization and local home rule, in a multi-party configuration gives the best results. NEVER satisfactory, but better than anything else so far achieved. More debating voices make for better decision making. Not always, but for the most part yes!
Concentration of power, or centralization, inevitably brings huge abuses and the masses of the population of all walks of life, will suffer. The only growth aspects in economics for centralized systems are the growth of the bureaucracy and creation of a class system defined by political party membership. A new ruling monarchy by a different name.
Excessive taxation can ruin a national economy. Taxation must be continuously fine tuned. Tweaked as it were. Taxation is probably the best method of achieving social justice if the taxes are so applied appropriately. The Scandinavian countries have done fairly well with socialization fed by taxation. The difference between Belize and Scandinavian countries are that they are manufacturing and huge oil producing countries and Belize is still only an agrarian society without any manufacturing capability. Manufacturing seems to pay better than agriculture for large populations. In Belize, the small population is doing well without manufacturing, but that situation will change over time.
Government should be from the bottom up, meaning from many small local government systems and not from the top down by a small political party elite of rulers. This we have learned from history, particularly over the last century. A party governing system should be for the most part simply managers of bottom up, desires. The faults here are often by bureaucratic regulation, laws and institutional rules that act as laws, created by an intellectual elite, either within a governing party, or advising a party, usually from urban centers. A salaried bureaucratic intellectual group, deciding what is best according to their myopic idealistic theoretical views, rather than the market place.
The majority of people work to a self interest type motivation. They need to see the fruits of their labor. Whether that be for PROFIT and what they perceive as a better materialistic life, or are just among the 2% of individuals driven by a strong work ethic and enjoy such a work motivated challenging life. The self interest may be as simple as the current debate between our southern rural Mayan agriculturalists simple rural life style and that of the more materialistic city dwellers of the port town, Belize City, the latter who desire more taxation on the small farmer, to support their chosen life styles of materialism.
Agriculture production from the viewpoint of economic and food self sufficiency is best achieved through the small farmer, the world historical statistical production evidence indicates. Corporate farms work, as has been proven in Canada, Australia and the USA. They do however lack many of the social justice inputs into the rural society found from small farmers, who may have different ambitions than desired by intellectual bureaucratic political party people whose goal may be more taxes, or easier tax collecting. The State farm systems of the communist centralized planning socialist countries, severely under perform the profit motive type production of small farmers, all statistics over the last century worldwide show. Ownership of land and the choice of selling the crop based on supply and demand prices, work wonders for production. Central planning by politicians and bureaucrats has proven historically to be disastrous to a national economy.
Belize has a pretty good multi-party system. It has flaws, such as; that with so few government jobs available, each winning party uses those jobs as rewards for party supporters. We should probably move to a double blind, system of civil service exams for each permanent government job, in which the examiner and judge does not know the identity of the applicants. This was discussed many years ago on the internet based BELIZE DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, but neither political party in Belize wish to give up the spoils, of awarding government jobs. This is certainly a fault in our governing system. Our governing efficiency and abilities are severely curtailed by pandering to political party greed. We pay for this political greed in poor economic performance on a national basis.
In the arguments for and against methods of social justice achievement, recent talks with Venezuela, hell bent on resurrecting ancient failed Soviet and Eastern Block methodologies using centralization, one party rule, and war against their middle class who base their activities on the incentive of profit; has shown Belizeans how we differ in methods. It is true, that GRANT AID, primarily from Taiwan, the FAO of the UN, some from the EU and a little bit from oil rich Venezuela seeking geo-political voting leverage in the International arena, has helped Belize achieve some social programs, we could not with our small population scattered all over this nation otherwise achieve. For those with financial plenty and a philosophy of giving, we are sincerely grateful. Politicians in most places in the world always spend more than is available. Ours are no different unfortunately and currently the ownership of the economy of Belize to foreign bankers is increasing under a new UDP government. Recent numbers show our debt ratio has moved from 76% of GDP to 95% of GDP. The goal of Belize should be of course to mimic the European Union and our debt ratio needs to be below 3% of GDP.
Trade, a thing that is still minimal for Belize with the outside world, has been shown to be rather impractical and unprofitable with both the CARICOM assorted island countries, despite preferential tariff encouragement and now with Venezuela. Venezuela, a large country with the money to pay for imports unlike our fellow CARICOM small market countries, has embarked on a pogrom of attacking and destroying their middle class like a repeat of the Eastern Bloc countries did back in the 1950’s. The ALBA trade deal does not seem practical for Belizean producers and exporters. Most of it is based on a government to government barter system and is primarily geared to achieving geo-political strength in the International forums through client small state votes that can be controlled by Venezuela. Belize needs export trade for CASH, to do any good from the social sense of improving our own society. The contribution that Venezuela is giving Belize has come mostly in the form of small GRANTS for specific social projects. Very much appreciated and creating good will. It is doubtful though, if either the bureaucrats, or the political party in power will agree to any type of barter type trade bloc and sign away Belizean International voting Independence in return for small favors. The HEARTLAND OF BELIZE have pretty much already abandoned both CARICOM and VENEZUELA as potential trading partners. There just is no money in it to pay the bills. Our attention now in Western Belize for would be export producers, is turning to Mexico, Central America and the FAR EAST, as possible export markets for new products in the agro processing field. We would dearly like to get into small manufacturing as well, as our population grows, if for no other reason than to provide jobs. The orientation of both our senior bureaucracy and the politicians seem to be aligned in the same direction, as the private sector here. Which is a massive change in thinking and policies.
One thing can be said for the current course. Living standards are rising rapidly in Western Belize along with labor saving devices; like washing machines, refrigerators, cars and trucks, inside plumbing, running water from a tap ( albeit cold ), etc. The days of fire heart wood cooking are nearly over. As are kerosene lamps and stoves. I would dearly like to buy an old kerosene oven that is portable and fit over a two burner butane hot plate type of cooking device. They are no longer sold either here, or in Guatemala unfortunately. A sign of rising material living standards. We must be doing something right?
Monday, October 20, 2008
BELIZE DIVERSIFIED GOALS FOR ECONOMIC SUCCESS
GOALS FOR NATIONAL BELIZEAN GOVERNMENT SUCCESS
• FOREIGN RESERVES: Foreign reserves should be A MINIMUM of 3 x GDP, ( three times value of GDP )
• COST AND SIZE OF BELIZE GOVERNMENT – ( RULES ): Limit of 20% of GDP
• PILLARS OF PRODUCTIVITY: (Government budgeting-encouragement )
• Light manufacturing exports (16.5%),
• import substitution ( 16.5% ),
• agriculture- processing, packaging and marketing of agricultural products-niche brand name gourmet foods and other products ( 16.5% ),
• unique technological exports ( 16.5% ),
• generic drug manufacturing ( 8% ),
• financial services for foreigners ( 9% ),
• tourism (10%),
• tropical products and scientific research (3% ).
• Aviation maintenance and manufacturing ( niche services )(4%)
• NATIONAL AND FOREIGN DEBT RATIO: Less than 3% of GDP
• DISASTER EMERGENCY FUND: 7% of GDP
• AGRICULTURE DIVERSITY AND FOOD SUPPLY: Self sufficient food supply for two years storage.
• MEDICAL SERVICES: Government and private sector combination.
• ELECTRICAL ENERGY: Self sufficiency independence.
• VEHICULAR FUEL SUPPLY: Self sufficiency independence.
• TRANSPORTATION HUB: Regional & International airline HUB services.
• AVIATION: Maintenance, repair and manufacturing hub.
• POPULATION LIMITS: 1 MILLION to 1.5 MILLION
SCORE CARD JANUARY - 2009
Foreign Reserves: Failure
Cost and size of Government: Failure
Pillars of productivity: Failure
National and Foreign Debt Ratio: Failure
Disaster Emergency Fund: Failure
Agriculture Diversity and Food Supply: Failure
Medical Services: Success
Electrical Energy: Failure
Vehicular Fuel Supply: Failure
Transportation Hub: Moderate
Aviation: Below Average
Population Limits: Success
___________________________________________________________
• FOREIGN RESERVES: Foreign reserves should be A MINIMUM of 3 x GDP, ( three times value of GDP )
• COST AND SIZE OF BELIZE GOVERNMENT – ( RULES ): Limit of 20% of GDP
• PILLARS OF PRODUCTIVITY: (Government budgeting-encouragement )
• Light manufacturing exports (16.5%),
• import substitution ( 16.5% ),
• agriculture- processing, packaging and marketing of agricultural products-niche brand name gourmet foods and other products ( 16.5% ),
• unique technological exports ( 16.5% ),
• generic drug manufacturing ( 8% ),
• financial services for foreigners ( 9% ),
• tourism (10%),
• tropical products and scientific research (3% ).
• Aviation maintenance and manufacturing ( niche services )(4%)
• NATIONAL AND FOREIGN DEBT RATIO: Less than 3% of GDP
• DISASTER EMERGENCY FUND: 7% of GDP
• AGRICULTURE DIVERSITY AND FOOD SUPPLY: Self sufficient food supply for two years storage.
• MEDICAL SERVICES: Government and private sector combination.
• ELECTRICAL ENERGY: Self sufficiency independence.
• VEHICULAR FUEL SUPPLY: Self sufficiency independence.
• TRANSPORTATION HUB: Regional & International airline HUB services.
• AVIATION: Maintenance, repair and manufacturing hub.
• POPULATION LIMITS: 1 MILLION to 1.5 MILLION
SCORE CARD JANUARY - 2009
Foreign Reserves: Failure
Cost and size of Government: Failure
Pillars of productivity: Failure
National and Foreign Debt Ratio: Failure
Disaster Emergency Fund: Failure
Agriculture Diversity and Food Supply: Failure
Medical Services: Success
Electrical Energy: Failure
Vehicular Fuel Supply: Failure
Transportation Hub: Moderate
Aviation: Below Average
Population Limits: Success
___________________________________________________________
Friday, October 10, 2008
Extract from the Belize Culture List Serve
to join: send a message to bz-culture-request@psg.com In the body of the message put subscribe There should be no footers, or signature files as the autoresponder will kick you out.
====================
THOUGHTS ON THE BELIZE ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2008 under a new UDP government.
I’m looking forward to the first UDP budget speech in January or February. If they stay conservative, things will be okay. I doubt there will be much change in the economic numbers though. The only difference is going to be that 2009 will see more government revenue and thus the ability for a better budget spending and saving plan for 2009. Belize is actually in perfect shape considering; to become a solid conservative managed economy and country, the envy of a all the Caribbean . I doubt the National Debt will change from roughly $2.25 billion. I do expect the debt to GDP ratio to have become a bit worse because of the needless foreign borrowing this year. That seems to have stopped, so it probably will not be too bad. A hinderance to good governance, but understandable because of the needs of politics and party braggadocio for their UDP first year in office. GDP growth I expect to be about the same, around 1.6%. It might shrink a little, or grow a little, but more or less the same this year. I don’t really look for much change in this number until 2010 if the UDP can keep a lid on government spending. Nor do I expect the outside world to impinge too much on consolidation of the economic situation in Belize , whatever is happening out there in the outside world. The biggest factors effecting Belize are the European Union, EPA sales pitch and threats. Also the effect on tourism, which I expect to be minimal. There is a problem with the growth of Airport Departure taxes world wide. This can be detrimental to tourism. For economic growth we do need a concentration on making products for export. How would you foster the chocolate industry and locate markets? Is there a chocolate market in China ? It would seem so? How do you teach college graduates to be entrepreneurs?
to join: send a message to bz-culture-request@psg.com In the body of the message put subscribe There should be no footers, or signature files as the autoresponder will kick you out.
====================
THOUGHTS ON THE BELIZE ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2008 under a new UDP government.
I’m looking forward to the first UDP budget speech in January or February. If they stay conservative, things will be okay. I doubt there will be much change in the economic numbers though. The only difference is going to be that 2009 will see more government revenue and thus the ability for a better budget spending and saving plan for 2009. Belize is actually in perfect shape considering; to become a solid conservative managed economy and country, the envy of a all the Caribbean . I doubt the National Debt will change from roughly $2.25 billion. I do expect the debt to GDP ratio to have become a bit worse because of the needless foreign borrowing this year. That seems to have stopped, so it probably will not be too bad. A hinderance to good governance, but understandable because of the needs of politics and party braggadocio for their UDP first year in office. GDP growth I expect to be about the same, around 1.6%. It might shrink a little, or grow a little, but more or less the same this year. I don’t really look for much change in this number until 2010 if the UDP can keep a lid on government spending. Nor do I expect the outside world to impinge too much on consolidation of the economic situation in Belize , whatever is happening out there in the outside world. The biggest factors effecting Belize are the European Union, EPA sales pitch and threats. Also the effect on tourism, which I expect to be minimal. There is a problem with the growth of Airport Departure taxes world wide. This can be detrimental to tourism. For economic growth we do need a concentration on making products for export. How would you foster the chocolate industry and locate markets? Is there a chocolate market in China ? It would seem so? How do you teach college graduates to be entrepreneurs?
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