BELIZE PREPARING FOR WORLD DEPRESSION

PREPARING FOR THE BELIZE DEPRESSION OF 2009 – 2012

There is an old cliché, that says when you prepare for the worst, the worst NEVER happens! The outside world is already in a confirmed RECESSION now two years old and in Belize the effects are just starting to be felt. We seem to be running about a year behind the outside world schedule. That said, there is definitely a DEPRESSION coming in 2009 for the outside world and we can see vast industrialized economies, who are our biggest markets and sources of tourists unwinding into DEPRESSION.
It is something to do with psychology I suppose, but if our UDP CABINET prepares for the worst it probably will never happen. We lost a big chunk of our productive economy during 2008, which has been replaced by increased oil exports, even at a third lower prices. Tourism is going to take a big hit during 2009, the early visitor indicators show. Since tourism is one of the pillars of our government revenues, then that presupposes projections for general tax revenues for 2009 will drop drastically. It makes sense for our UDP CABINET to revise the projected government revenues for 2009 and 2010 downwards, from expectations.
What then are the WORST CASE SCENARIOS for our UDP CABINET during the 2009 and 2010 period, during the effects of the world depression?
Probably, the UDP CABINET should revise government budget spending downward a third? Since we are talking WORST CASE PREPARATION, then perhaps it would be smarter to drop revenue estimates by 50%.
We have had two hurricanes in ONE YEAR before, so let us estimate two hurricanes for 2009. At a cost of $150 million each in government costs.
We are getting more and more floods and have had two floods in one year, so let us throw two flood disasters into the WORST CASE SCENARIO pot, and plan for that as well, along with associated economic losses and costs.
ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM REDUCED TOURISM ACTIVITY looks like tourist revenues may actually drop over 50%, perhaps 75%? There is a lot associated economic activity with loss of tourism activity, in the general community.
Lastly but not leastly, with NEW reduced government tax revenues and lower expected local economic activity, then our fixed FOREIGN LOAN REPAYMENT SCHEDULES are going to effect the amounts of money available to maintain the government of Belize activities. For 2009, the $150 million borrowed in 2008 by the UDP Cabinet, can be spent and will create an articial blip on our GDP figure. It is not productive directly as a spending, but will create local internal economic circulation activity.

It looks like revising government tax revenues for 2009 and 2010 downward from previous estimates, by a third would be appropriate? This can be refigured in 2010 as projections and performance unfolds. We are not looking at rosy estimates of economic revenues here, but at what we consider to be the WORST CASE scenarios. This means the government budgets need to be re-adjusted to fit the revised situation as we MIGHT experience it. Go to it, UDP CABINET, do your job.
Generally speaking, it is times like these; that the National Debt looms more and more, like a chain and ball tied around our neck, as these FIXED REPAYMENT COSTS become larger in proportion to the much reduced expected available government tax revenues. We await with much interest the UDP Government delayed STATE OF THE NATION speech, for not only the economic figures the private sector needs for proper annual planning economic activity, but also the budget presentation for government size and activity. The question in my mind is; will the BARROW government prepare a budget for a DEPRESSION year WORST CASE SCENARIO, or will he let his civil servants prepare a budget based on more favorable, over optimistic artificial figures, as is usual, and which always get our governments in trouble.
The thing to remember is; if you prepare for a WORST CASE SCENARIO, the physcology of doing so, will actually prevent you from making stupid mistakes if these things happen and if not, then you end up looking like roses at the end of 2009 going into 2010 with a darned surplus in a GUARANTEED WORLD DEPRESSION YEAR. That is a pretty good economic and political outcome to be desired, I would think?

INTERNAL FIGHT OF BELIZE JUSTICE SYSTEM

Justice Conteh of Supreme Court in Belize
Photo is Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Attorney General of Belize.



BELIZE JUSTICE SYSTEM INTERNAL FIGHT ( Two bantam roosters fight.) Elrington won!

MINISTER OF JUSTICE of BELIZE and ATTORNEY GENERAL, HAVE A BATTLE OF WORDS WITH SUPREME COURT JUSTICE CONTEH IN LEGAL SEMINAR

The Supreme Court Justice, Conteh acting as spokesman for a room full of lawyers and connected government people in the legal system of Belize , gave a scathing report of the state of the legal system in Belize , against the UDP Government of Belize. The crux of the message he gave, was the legal system wants a lot more money to function properly from government revenues.

Minister of Justice, and Attorney General, Elrington came back in the packed meeting, with a flat announcement that there is no more money and that the problems lie not with the amounts of money, but the laxity of the Justices to deal promptly with judgements for court cases. Some of which take years. Attorney General Elrington went on to say that the Justices made more salary than he did as a Cabinet Minister, that they have brand new courtesy vehicles, fuel allowances, travel allowances and a whole host of PERKS. His summation was that the Justices were not delivering their jobs in a timely and expert manner. That in fact, they were a privileged lot in the government system, basically spoiled and not performing to the level they are paid. Attorney General Elrington, himself a Belize lawyer, said the government had been sending him around the British speaking Caribbean and to other countries of the Commonwealth, searching to fill government positions in the Justice system, but that the quality of candidate applications was very low and unsatisfactory.

The spokesperson for the legal system seminar, Justice Conteh for the group of Belize lawyers replied to Elrington, they had made a decision to render all judgements for courtcases not later than 90 days. Conteh was wishy washy though and hedged and hawed around that timeline with more excuses for their incompetent performance. However, Conteh went on to make a bunch of excuses and among which; was the failure of the Director of Prosecutions and the police to provide sufficient evidence for many of the court cases. He also mentioned the practice of witness intimidation, and fact, that murderers were being let free by the justices, because witnesses are afraid to give evidence. He said, something had to be done.

The public watched the proceedings on television and street talk later, gave way to suggesting a separate vigilante system for eliminating career thieves and murderers as a solution. Something similar done in rural Guatemalan communities. A sort of Los Pepes as in Colombia , but created in Belize , a secret society of vigilantes.

Belize belongs to a world wide English speaking Commonwealth legal system, fairly standard in many countries around the world and legal people often are hired to work in other countries with similar systems. In Belize we have quite a few legal lawyers that came to Belize to work in the Justice system from other countries.

Toucan national bird of Belize found at Clarissa Falls, Belize

The TOUCAN is the National Bird of Belize. When I have tourists guests at Falconview Backpackers Adventure Hostel, I like to make sure they lunch and swim at Clarissa Falls, because under the thatch roof restaurant, they have two wild TOUCANS raised by the owner and one of them a real pet and much photographed bird, has broken the tip of the top beak and so must come to the restaurant from the wild, to get the fruit the owner slices up in bite sized pieces. This makes the visit to Clarissa Falls all the more memorable for that.

SHOE REPAIRING IN BELIZE DIES OUT!

SHOE REPAIR A DYING BUSINESS IN BELIZE

Francisco Margoe is 73 years old. He has been in the main section of San Ignacio Town for the past twelve years carrying on his trade of repairing shoes. Before that he used to repair shoes for the previous 18 years in the port town of Belize City on the coast. With the advent of Chinese manufacturing, excess inventory of shoes and clothes, the one thing that the world does not need anymore, is individual sewing seamstress's or shoemakers/repairers. Far as I know in my memory and I am 71 years old, Francisco here must be the last of his breed. Most of the shoes he repairs come from visiting Guatemalans from across the border. Guatemala makes shoes, but reputedly of poor quality. I do not know of another shoe repairer working in Belize? In my youth there were at least a dozen, but they have died out.

BUDGET CRITIQUE OF OUR UDP GOVERNMENT

THE CRITIQUE LAST WEEK ON THE UDP AND WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

What would you do if you were the CABINET and the UDP?
The critique last week went into the BORROW AND SPEND DEBT ECONOMICS POLICY OF THIS UDP GOVERNMENT, forecasting dire financial bankruptcy consequences due to poor budgetary planning.
In planning the budget for 2009, I would as a matter of course, plan for the WORST CASE SCENARIO! What kind of worse case scenario can you envisage to hit our economy of the country in 2009?
For starters, we live in HURRICANE ALLEY, right at the end. I personally would plan and allow funds to be set aside for TWO hurricane strikes. Also, we now know from experience, that with the deforestation of the nearby PETEN in Guatemala, that we can, during a monstrous rainfall, expect FLOODING. Right off the bat, any 2009 budget should have 300 million dollars set aside to ECONOMIC LOSSES that could be expected from these high probability events. A worse case scenario then for NATURAL DISASTERS would allocate funds be put in reserve to recover from such events and economic losses.
The next thing, our economy is a bit diversified, but our economy is based on remittances, bananas, sugar, fisheries, oil and agriculture in general. We could assume therefore, due to outside world events over which we have no control, we could lose one of these pillars of our government and economic revenues. So, it is only wise to set aside some reserves to cover the economic losses if we were to lose one of our economic legs that support our nation and government costs.
Having done that, those reserves could sit there if never used, until next year and give us some leeway for spending in 2010. If for any disastrous reason, we had to use those funds, we would have them.
The other thing is to project government revenues for 2009. Until we get the STATE OF THE NATION report from our Prime Minister later in January, we cannot draw too many conclusions about that. The mistake both politicians and bureaucrats make often, is to set too high an estimate of government revenues. It is wiser to take the least expected projections and work within that. If you should have money left over by the end of 2009, that is to the good and would go well toward building solvency, or resolving temporary budget shortfalls that might be needed.
What would you recommend for budget planning for this UDP government? After all, they are YOUR GOVERNMENT and so far, they have shown little skill at budget planning with budget revenues. THEY need your ideas and advice! TELL THEM WHAT YOU WOULD PLAN AND DO WITH GOVERNMENT REVENUES.

Frank L. Dueck family and cousins spending the Sunday noon at recreational spot of Clarissa Falls, in Belize.

Farming Mennonite family with their cousins on an outing to Clarissa Falls on a pleasant warm January Sunday outing. This is the Frank L. Dueck family and cousins from nearby Spanish Lookout, Mennonite German speaking farming area.

TOURISTS ENJOYING WESTERN BELIZE RECREATIONAL AREA, JAN/2009

Guests visiting Xununtanich Mayan ruins in Belize, Jan. 4, 2009 Our Falconview Backpackers Adventure Hostel courtesy vehicle in the background.

USA GOVERNMENT OFFERS SCHOLARSHIPS TO COLLEGE FOR BELIZEANS

USA GOVERNMENT BACK IN BUSINESS OF WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS WITH COLLEGE SCHOLARSHIPS AND MAINTAINANCE GRANTS TO BELIZEAN STUDENTS 2009


If you are a high school graduate and you think you might enjoy doing the equivalent of “Sixth Form” in the U.S., then this program might be of interest to you.
U.S. Government Sponsored Community College Initiatives (Scholarship Program)
The Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs of the United States Department of State is pleased to announce the Community College Initiatives Program. This international educational exchange program enables individuals from Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, South Africa, and countries in Central America to study at a community college in the United States to develop professional skills. Eligible fields are Agriculture, Applied Engineering, Business Management and Administration; Health Professions, including Nursing; Information Technology; Media; and Tourism and Hospitality Management.
Eligibility:
To apply to the program, candidates must:
•have completed a secondary school education;
•have relevant work experience in the field in which they are applying;
•have English language skills that provide a basis for enrolling in academic coursework following approximately 2 months of intensive English language study in the U.S.; and
•submit a complete application.
Applicants with Bachelor’s degrees are only eligible if they are applying in a field different from the field of their degree. Applicants with MA or PhD degrees are not eligible to participate.
U.S. Program:
The Community College Initiatives will provide funding for round-trip airfare to the U.S.; a living allowance during English language, academic, and practical training program components; tuition costs; a health benefit plan; and cultural enhancement activities. Students will be hosted in groups by community colleges competitively selected to participate in the program. Programs are approximately one year in duration. Successful participants will receive a certificate upon completion of the year. Students are required to return home at the end of their program and may not transfer to a four-year U.S. academic institution.
Selection and Screening:
The U.S. Embassies in Central America are responsible for advertising the program and for recruiting and nominating candidates from Central America for further consideration. Educational experts in the U.S. will make selection and placement decisions for the approval of the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs.
Submission of Applications
An original application and two copies should be submitted to the address below:
Sue Kuester
Public Affairs Officer
U.S. Embassy Belmopan
Floral Park Road
Belmopan, Belize
Application Deadline: January 2, 2009
For additional information, contact:
Sue Kuester, Public Affairs Officer, 501-822-4011 (x4113), KuesterSG@state.gov
Denise Nisbet, Public Affairs Assistant, 501-822-4011 (x4370), NisbetDL@state.gov

CHARCOAL COMPOSTING ELIMINATES SLASH AND BURN MAYA AGRICULTURE

CHARCOAL MAKES GOOD COMPOST!

Recent archeological finds; that the central Amazon supported hundreds of millions of people BEFORE the arrival of the Spanish wiped them out with new diseases; has sparked a new interest in adding charcoal to your compost. The Amazon is interesting, because otherwise it has poor soils, or lack of soils, like found here in Belize. Here in Belize we mostly use the clays and marls and sand to hold the plants and roots and feed the plants IMPORTED FERTILIZER. This costs lots of money and does nothing for the soil quality, if that is possible? The other method uses ASHES, as in slash and burn milpa agriculture. Other people in other countries do use charcoal. The advantage to charcoal is that it uses nutrients from the charcoal in creating good loam, for growing food. The ancient Amazonian Indians supported their hundreds of millions of people, for nearly 9000 years successfully. It has been found that the scientific assumption, that such populations were not possible in the otherwise soiless Amazon, is false. The archeological findings show that Amazonian indians used beds of charcoal mixed with compost to increase the fertility of the soil. In fact, layers of this have been found nine feet deep all over the Amazon interior on shallow soils otherwise deemed impractical for supporting large populations. Above you can see a vegetable bed similar to that prepared by the Taiwanese Mission at Central Farm in the Cayo District of Belize. Notice the layering of charcoal. We do use ASHES from burnt wood in Belize, but the nutrition only lasts about two years and sometimes three years with a thinner crop; then rotational slash and burn farming must be practiced by clearing new jungle. The old milpa is then allowed to re-generate over 30 or more years or so. A very inefficient wasteful method of growing food and farming in general. When you use charcoal with your compost, the result results in a nutrient rich loam that grows plants for centuries. If one combined charcoal, with rice leavings, perhaps the offal from Tilapia fish farming as in skeletons and heads, plus ordinary compost organic food matter, the result should be equal to that proven by the Amazonian ancient knowledge of the Indians of South America.
Nobody is making charcoal yet in Belize that I know of, but it is easy to make. You can make it in your back yard. You simply make a furnace, like using a rusty 55 gallon drum, with a fire heart in the bottom and some blocks, or rocks to hold a grill. Inside the drum on top of the grill and fire heart, you place a smaller 5 or 16 gallon container, in which you place air dried lumber, which you can pick up in the Mountain Pine Ridge for free, eaten by the pine beetles. In the bottom of this small metal container ( called a retort ) you bore a few small holes and then set the fire heart going. The holes are in the bottom of the retort can. The fire heart burns wood like any fire, but the heat does not set fire to the wood stuffing the retort can, which simply dries out even more into charcoal. It takes about 3 hours to produce charcoal in your backyard this way and you lose shrinkage of about a third. You can also bar-b-que with this charcoal.
There is certainly a charcoal producing industry market in Belize for this. Young entrepreneurs anyone? Will Extension Officers and the Agricultural College teach this ancient method of making good loam soil in Belize? We certainly need it.

Charlie Trew drops in for visit from Washington D.C.

CHARLIE TREW a friend from our Belize Culture listserve, that has been on the internet about 17 years. Charlie was visiting myself Ray at Falconview Backpackers Adventure Hostel. That is the hostel community kitchen area in the background. Charlie is drinking Beliken beer, the only beer available in Belize. Sorry the photo got blurred, but since that is all I have? Charlie comes down a couple of times a year, from his job in Washington, D.C. where he works in the Library of Congress as a classified documents person. Charlie also has a vacation home in San Jose Succotz, a small town about 8 miles away from our Green Parrot Valley in Santa Elena Town. This small town of Succotz is at the foot of the hilltop temple Mayan ruins of Xununtanich across the Mopan River by a small barge, hand cranked ferry, then a mile up the hill. Every time Charlie comes, I ask for books for donating to the Santa Elena Town Public Library. I get to read them first. He can get discards from his libraries up there and usually packs a bag for the check in airplane baggage with a dozen or so. Sometimes his taste is gawd awful in reading material. You can't argue with a FREE thing though and our library needs donations badly. Everybody is grateful for his gifts and thoughtfulness. The one thing about this area and Succotz in particular, people have been living around here for the past 14,000 years that we know of. Must be good living hey? I would say so and Charlie says so too!

Western Belize most common languages!

WESTERN BELIZE LANGUAGES

By Ray Auxillou, Nov. 2008

Western Belize has a multitude of languages. About 75% of the Western Belize population, around 125,000 people are fairly new immigrants over the past 30 to 50 years.

The main language for school and government is ENGLISH. This enables everybody to talk together and communicate with the outside world. SPANISH is the next dominant language. There are many lesser languages. Of the 22 Mayan languages in Central America, both Yucatec and Mopan Maya are spoken in some of the older peoples homes here in Belize. Most people speak two languages and often three. Many are versatile in four or five languages.

Languages spoken in Western Belize are German, found in a small way in the commercial sector and among the Mennonites where it is widely spoken. About 35,000 people speak German in the industrial and agricultural HEARTLAND of Belize, either as a home language, or a second language. All of these people in turn usually can communicate in Creole, a version of bastardized English favored in the port town and along the coastal villages and towns to the East. These German speakers also speak good English as well as Creole and often Spanish. Our Creole has more to do with the Jamaican dialect, but has widespread uses among the lower class of clerks in the civil service. At one time, Creole was the main language of Belize during the Colonial times. It is a Caribbean hangover from 50 years ago. Since the media are concentrated in the port town, a bastion of Creole speaking coastal citizens, you will find Creole dominates in the civil service and unfortunately all over the country in the primary schools, on radio and television stations. Creole speakers from the coastal communities often take jobs as teachers, nurses, civil servants and policemen. This is really confusing to children in rural primary school. Often people in Western Belize cannot understand broad thick Creole speakers from the coast, who have a heavy Caribbean dialect. Pretty much like a city person from London, England trying to understand a fellow Englishman farmer from York. Or a high German speaker in Germany trying to understand a low German speaker from Austria. Or somebody from Rome, Italy trying to understand a villager from the mountainous interior of the Southern part of Italy.

Common also are the languages of Arabic, Hindu, French, Romanian, and Italian. These are usually restaurant owners and business people from the merchant class. Very common these days are both Mandarin and Cantonese Chinese, which while having the same writing, have different languages is my understanding. Cantonese speakers come from the industrial areas of mainland China and the Mandarin speakers usually come from Taiwan, an island off the coast of mainland China. There are a couple thousand Chinese speakers.

To get along in Western Belize, you need both English and Spanish. You will find also a need sometimes to interpret Creole into English. Nearly all Spanish speakers in Western Belize can switch to English easily mid conversation. This is not always true for English speakers trying to switch to Spanish. All the other language speakers can switch easily to English and sometimes fairly into poor Spanish.

Lonely Planet Forum on Belize and TROTTERS GUIDEBOOK in Dutch

entry for LONELY PLANET FORUM


WESTERN BELIZE RECREATIONAL AREA tourism OPENED with a BANG! ( October 7th, 2008 )
We got a phone call from 3 Flemish Tourists, doing a reverse direction GRINGO TRAIL tour yesterday and picked them up downtown for an overnight at our FALCONVIEW BACKPACKERS ADVENTURE HOSTEL. They were enroute to Placentia and via Punta Gorda, and soon this week back to Guatemala; where they were working in a remote Mountain village Hospital. We sort of get the odd tourist backpacker in our off season at our HOSTEL for travelers. They found us through TROTTERS GUIDEBOOK in DUTCH. They were Veerle, a 26 year old nurse, Steven the 31 year old boyfriend working at the remote mountainous hospital in the village of Yalanhuitz, and his sister Kristel age 35 years, visiting for a month from Belgium. Normally September, October and November, are our dead off season for tourists, though in November we do pick up the odd one passing through. Our FALCONVIEW BACKPACKERS ADVENTURE HOSTEL, is usually going through re-painting and repairs at this time. I had just told my wife yesterday morning, that I expected we would start to get a trickle of GRINGO TRAIL travelers this month. Lo and behold, a few hours later we got three. Their story is interesting. They come from Antwerp and hooked up with a long term volunteer organization www.vivirenamor.be running a village hospital serving many remote high Guatemalan villages. Apparently they had just finished an 8 month stint of volunteering and were seeing the surrounding Central American countries. The job paid their air flights from Belgium and they lived in a small wooden shack in the village, with a bedroom big enough for the bed, but no toilet available. Steven worked as the hospital administrator and Veerle worked as the nurse. The villages in the mountainous area are mostly Lan Chuj Maya indians and Q'anjobal Mayan indians. The Maya have 22 distinct different languages through the old Mayan Empire. The oldest Mayan temple can be found in San Salvador around 7000 years old. A lot older than any Egyptian pyramids. In Belize, our temple pyramids go back about 4000 years.
On my trip to our twin town market this morning, I noticed a string of tourist backpackers on the street in the central bus and restaurant area of our twin towns of Santa Elena Town and San Ignacio Town, and in the local TOUR OPERATORS offices, saw them fairly full of tourists, going out on daily local tours and site trips. I stopped by my friend BOB the Englishman, at PACZ TOURS and asked him about the off season and mentioned the tourists around, in what should still be our OFF DEAD season. He said, it picked up a day ago and they are coming in like crazy from all over. I sort of wasn't expecting this to happen for another month. Nice though for business! Guess I will have to miss my own vacation? The OCTOBER flood we experienced from a torrential TROPICAL STORM # 16, has now gone down, in the Macal and Mopan Rivers around Western Belize Cayo District. Cold weather has been around for two weeks and maybe it is a lot colder in North America and in Europe?
We have a news blog, maintained this year, a few times weekly, with photographs and news of the "Western Belize Recreational Area" of the CAYO DISTRICT of Belize. If you are interested try: http://westernbelizehappenings.blogspot.com

Ray Auxillou
Hillviewhacienda

BIG ROCK FALLS superb swimming hole in the Belize foothills and theMountain Pine Ridge

Swimming at Big Rock Falls in the Mountain Pine Ridge, on an all day trip around the lower Belize Alps.

DEBATE ON TRAINING SEMINARS FOR BELIZE POLITICIANS

ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WHEN WE SWITCH POLITICIANS IN BELIZE

One of the problems when we switch politicians in Belize , is the need to teach them a bit about economics, budgeting, borrowing, and the longer term effects, from what we call CAUSE and EFFECT of public policy decisions, both at the CABINET level and at the area representative level. Many politicians are either academically uneducated, or rely solely on gut instinct and leave the worrying about money to spend, up to the PARTY LEADER, who usually holds tight the keys to the government revenues and the TREASURY.

In the outside world, the effects of interest rates, foreign loan borrowing, credit use, immediate gratification for area representatives, concerned primarily about their reelection chances and image, can be absorbed by the larger economies of scale in the very short term. For the outside world, improper policy decisions can take three or four years to work out, the unexpected UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES on the public and market place. In Belize , our National Economy is often only the size of a small town in either Europe, or the USA . Maybe not even as big as a University, or Community College system. Here in Belize the policy decisions by both, either the local area representative, or the CABINET as a whole, or even by the individual in charge of the keys to the TREASURY can have much more RAPID results in such a small economy. We don’t have to wait YEARS like large countries outside, to see the results of wrong policy making decisions. Area Representative CASTRO’s lagoon bridge comes to mind. The CAUSE and EFFECT of this expenditure occurred within six months or less. The newspapers have pointed out this week, it was $4 million of our scarce revenues, blown away on a whim.

Our politicians need to understand the CAUSE and EFFECT of their financial policies. The results will be felt usually within three months. If they are wrong, they effect the future of the political party and the nation, in the same year. In the outside world, things like wrongful policies that are causing the current RECESSION to become probably a WORLD DEPRESSION are postponed for years sometimes. Here in Belize that is not so. A wrong financial policy decision can be felt in Belize within one year, and often in less time than that. We are already in the seventh year of our PUP caused RECESSION and there is at least seven more years to work our way out of it.

That is why some time ago, we recommended the new UDP government put in place by LAWS, some sort of budgeting policy based on percentages, or ratios, to govern spending by the government, the party, the CABINET, the area representative and the Finance Minister / Party Leader. For example our National Debt to GDP ratio is about 82% of GDP and should be under 3% of GDP. Our corruption ratio is 17% of GDP and needs to be lowered, or factored into annual budgets. We had suggested the GST monthly, or quarterly tax revenues be used, to allocate the amounts available to be used for the following six months, or year. Sort of a rule by law and spending controls. We cannot allow gut reaction and personal emotions, or pressures from the electorate on area representatives, to get things done for some local pet project, influence how the government spends money, under the care of the PARTY LEADER. Who may have his own problems with internal fights within his or her own party while in office.

Already we see the UDP were not financially ready to manage the tax revenues of the country on a self sustainable basis, even though there is enough money to do so; properly managed to a system of ratios, percentages and laws. The way we do business in Belize has to change to a more academic, structured type of money management fiscal system. The small size of our nation requires that the emotional aspects of how we spend our government revenues be regulated in a more coherent policy manner. We are continuing to look at our government, that is fiscally unprepared, at the CABINET and Finance Ministerial level. That the fundamentals of leaving something in reserve for the unexpected like Hurricanes and floods, or any other emergencies, be prepared and planned, in a logical sane manner. Infra-structure is required, repairs and replacements must be maintained, disasters and emergencies should have budget allocations in reserves. We need to change from broad wishful emergency knee jerk, planning type operations, to a different system, set up to govern, quarterly and perhaps monthly on how we spend our money. Think of every conceivable thing that can happen, check against your priority lists of things to do and budget accordingly. The amounts government can spend by department, in proportion to some guideline like the GST revenues, or something like that. Always budget something for emergencies like right now.

Let us manage our country properly and become wealthy, ALL OF US !

Certainly there should be workshops and seminars for politicians on CAUSE and EFFECT. You could start a series of such workshops based on logical planning, on the future depression effects of foreign loan borrowing and the detrimental cost effects this has, a few years later, by causing a dampened recessionist economy lingering years into the future. Instead of building from strength to strength by controls on spending allocations. We must do things by increments.

Our problem in Belize is our small size. What takes years to occur in the USA , happens in months in Belize . Our elected representatives need to understand the cause and effect of interest rates, foreign loan borrowing, size of government and costs, priority lists, budgeting and allocations and even the making of lists, to divide up the available money in proportion to what is available any given month, or fiscal quarter. Educate them, run some seminars and workshops. We can manage our country a lot better, if we TRY!

CAYO DISTRICT FLOOD REPORT - BELIZE

CAYO DISTRICT FLOOD REPORT SUNDAY NIGHT Oct.19,2008

by Ray Auxillou

There has been a video showing on Bayman Cable in the Cayo District, this evening, taken by compliments of a plane ride from Central Farm. We had actually seen them flying overhead this morning when the sun was out. The video was over an hour and covered from Belmopan westward, to the Guatemalan border and over much of the agriculture areas bordering the rivers feeding into the Belize river. It will be edited into a shorter version for the Love FM, News Program on Monday. International readers can watch the video by streaming internet news service out of Belize. The rivers are deep brown with silt, flowing rapidly in the main channels, but sort of still and quiet like a lagoon, where they have flooded over the banks for a mile or more in places.

What we saw and the reports coming in on television, in the Western Cayo District, are that there has been extensive flooding. Bullet Tree village is underwater. Calla Creek, Santa Familla and many small village and rural communities are flooded. From the plane flight video, we could estimate roughly 200 buildings, homes and businesses, mostly in remote farms, are either completely submerged, or partially submerged. Crop losses look to be roughly $35 million dollars. Fruit orchids and corn and RK beans and some vegetables.

The hydro electric dams have been topped and water is pouring over the top of the dams, to conflicting reports of up to 14 feet higher. The dams are on the Macal River. The Macal River itself is being backed up at the junction, where it joins the Mopan River coming in from Guatemala forming the head of the Belize River. The Mopan is heavily flooding, more so than the Macal River. The two rivers join in San Ignacio Town, to make the Belize River, that runs across the width of the country, to the Caribbean Sea. In San Ignacio town; of the two bridges crossing the Macal River between the two cities of San Ignacio and Santa Elena, the low bridge is completely submerged and has been for several days, and previously it was covered for about ten days. Traffic is being routed in spurts across the Hawksworth Bridge, first one way, then the other. These bridges are only one lane bridges and we probably need a new, very high, six lane bridge in the near future and a by-pass highway around the twin towns. Traffic jams are very bad in the one way narrow mule train streets of San Ignacio..

The water has risen to cover Constitution Park, which is the little park and band stand, near the bus and Savanah taxi stand, centrally located in San Ignacio. Most of those ground floor stores in that central area of San Ignacio Town have at least a foot of water in them. Before the hydro dams on the Macal River, San Ignacio regularly got TOP GALLON floods that did that, but we haven’t seen this for about 15 years, now the dams had been built.

The Mopan River starts in Belize, way down south, a hundred miles away in the southern Belize Alps, separating the Toledo District from the interior highland jungles and flows into the Peten District of Guatemala. This Guatemalan Peten used to be wild jungle, home of the ancient Mayan Feudal Kingdoms, sparsely populated by remote Mayan communities in the jungles. No longer, as abut 30 years ago, population was being moved from the Western Guatemalan highlands into the lower Peten and some 5000 square miles of Peten jungles of my youth, have been cleared and made into ranch pastures. The Mopan River winds through this area and there are many branch rivers feeding into the Mopan River in the Guatemalan Peten area. The Mopan River comes back into Belize at the Melchor de Menchos and Benque Viejo border and flows to our twin towns and joins with the Macal River, draining the more Northern and Eastern Belize Alps. These two rivers then cross the width of our country as one new river called the Belize River, winding to the East, exiting by the port of Belize City on the coast. The deforestation of the Peten in Guatemala has contributed to faster moving water drainoff, along with massive erosion of limited top soil. This draining of the Guatemalan Peten basin into and through Belize is now changing past flood patterns and causing whole new areas that were once unknown to flood, to be in flood zones. These new flood zones in Belize, have not yet been mounted on the internet, by GIS mapping data in Belmopan our capital. The flood crest takes about three days to reach the coastal towns, villages and the port of Belize City. Population explosion needs this flood zone data via internet and GIS.

People who are old, remember back as far as Hurricane Hattie in 1961 and say the floods have never been as bad as this one. The major cause is deforestation of the Peten jungles.

The subject of loss of top soil in Belize along the river banks has been discussed, debated and written about for some 30 years, but no five year, port town controlled national government has ever passed any preventative progressive legislation. The major idea is to create a 500 yard wide, barrier of woods along river banks and prohibit cutting down of river bank forests. Tax relief could be given to property owners to encourage them to do this. Thus making wildlife preservation corridors as well as holding back scarce soil erosion. Perhaps this political term under the UDP, the political party in power will revisit this subject of loss of soil, by erosion and flooding and make some much needed legislation? The Western Highway has cut off Cayo District from the rest of the country. Reports late Sunday night indicate the Roaring Creek bridge is flooded over, by twelve feet of water, at the Belmopan junction, and San Jose Succotz western highway and Benque Viejo Town going to the Western border has also been flooded in two places, cutting off transportation into Guatemala. The bridge at the Guatemala border is also reported to be under high flood water. Spanish Lookout and the farms throughout the HEARTLAND OF BELIZE, the biggest mixed farming,agricultural area in the country, heading north through Orange Walk and Corozal Districts is also reported isolated. Schools throughout the Cayo District have been shut for Monday and probably through Wednesday, announced by the Ministry of Education over the radio and television, as the Metrological Office is reporting two more days of rain, for Monday and Tuesday.

NEMO, the government Emergency Committee are working and have been evacuating people from flooded houses and small farms and communities. These people are being installed for the time being, at the ITVET Community College system in San Ignacio. Mr. Chan of DFC bureaucratic fame, has been giving a telephone report from his position on the NEMO committee Sunday night, over the local Bayman Cable television station. He lives in San Jose Succotz. NEMO was active on Sunday, mostly with immediate areas that could be reached and are not totally cut off by the floods, accessible to evacuate anybody that wanted to. There is considerable assistance being given by many local volunteers to submerged house people along riverbank flooding. Reporters have been doing fly overs with assistance from tourist ultra light TRIKE aircraft and a Cessna from Central Farm, municipal airstrip for the twin towns. There has been no report from Chaa Creek Jungle Lodge and the grass airstrip there, with many planes, we presume, had already flown out to Central Farm municipal strip on Friday past? One doesn’t want your plane bogged down in wet grass and mud. There was a helicopter overflight we saw from our house in Hillview on the slope of Green Parrot Valley going along the Belize River valley water course on Saturday, we presume that was ASTRID helicopter charter?

We phoned Phylis over at EK TUN Jungle Lodge, high on the jungle clad wall of the Macal River Gorge Sunday night. She reported she was fine, but out of food supplies for her and her watch dogs. Her swimming pool had 10 feet of Macal River flood over it, she had reported earlier, by e-mail to the Belize Culture List Serve on Saturday and she cannot get in and out of her Lodge. The dirt track along the river to her place would be deep under water right now and she is on the opposite slope of the Gorge. I wonder if her landrover was parked there. If so it is under water AGAIN! Let us hope the famous troop of Howler Monkeys in the Macal River Gorge jungles are doing alright. The river is up about 70 feet high in the Macal River Gorge at her place. Phylis’s jungle lodge is still higher than her swimming pool about another 20 feet. Her jungle tourist lodge and Jane Beard’s home about a mile and a half from Santa Elena Town, on the Cristo Rey road are reported otherwise okay, but running periodically on portable small diesel generators right now, as they do not have BEL national electric grid connections, due to the high charges for running electrical lines into those properties. BEL wants something like $50,000 to run several poles and an electrical power line to Jane’s home on the Cristo Rey road, about a 1000 feet, so she has to do without the BEL electrical grid. This despite the many new subdivisions being cleared and plotted all through those hills and valleys. The solar battery banks at both places are otherwise dead, as there has been no sun for two weeks, with low cloud cover, due to the local convection, during the rainy month of September and October. Mostly October this year, which is better than in September, which normally accompanies passing hurricanes off shore. Jane Beard is in London, on a training course for the British High Commission trade office, while my brother-in-law Gustavo Pinzon is feeding the watch dogs and playing night watchman sleeping over there. Jane has her Permanent Residency, as she is retired in Belize and Gustavo awaits his Permanent Residency. A check last week at Belmopan immigration, showed his file was stuck in the police department someplace, for the last five weeks. Our Belize bureaucracy rivals that of India, another Commonwealth country, for obstacles and slowness. Good job he checked last week before the flood cut us off from Belmopan. Word is that; Immigration will charge him a $100 a month while he waits for the bureaucracy to process his application. That could take years one would think?

Gale and her husband, USA expatriates in their mid 70’s from Oregon in the USA, were due to arrive by plane Monday, for installing a wooden cabin, prefabricated by Reimer at Spanish Lookout. That will have to be postponed for two weeks I’m sure, as their property is somewhere around Bullet Tree Falls village, which is temporarily flooded. Spanish Lookout Mennonite community shopping is inaccessible right now. With the housing crisis in the USA, Gale and husband, were never able to get their capital out of their home by sale in the USA, as the housing mortgage market had collapsed. So, retirement funds are tight. They are stuck, holding a home in the USA they no longer want, preventing them from moving full time to Belize and starting a farming business. Janet a Mennonite widow, famous for her yogurt at the Macal river, Saturday market and her many daughters are still milking their 32 holstein cows, early morning and evening. They live lower on the Cristo Rey road below Jane, alongside the road, which is dry.

The water in central San Ignacio Town was lapping below Maya Walk place and the German restaurant. The shopping mall with the French Bakery is flooded to one or two feet. All of these places are downtown, central San Ignacio Town.

As I edit this piece this Monday morning, waves of rain pass over every 30 minutes, making a loud drumming noise on our tropical, corrugated galvanized zinc roof, for our Falconview Backpackers Adventure Hostel hammock room verandah. We rent dormitory bunk beds and furnished apartments, with bathrooms and kitchens. Our place is a FOUR STAR HOSTEL otherwise. We have no University and College age guests, this being the dead FALL three month OFF season. Our construction finishing work on two new furnished apartments for winter rentals is held up also by the rains. Our lettuce crop in our organic hydroponic nursery is growing great though. We were hoping to shop in Flores in the central Peten, Guatemala, this coming week, but doubt the condition of the Peten road will be any better than our dirt roads in Belize. Though still better than my memories of pushing my old VW camper bus across flooded rivers in the Peten of my younger years. At least there is a dirt two lane road of sorts now. I can remember when the Guatemalans built that road and big D9 caterpillar bulldozers could get half buried in mud. We can’t find flat clip on lamp shades for overhead protruding 75 watt ceiling bulbs, or 200 thread bed sheets here in the twin towns stores, for our two new rental tourist apartments, being prepared for winter visitors. We were also planning a vacation trip to El Salvador in November, by the mini-bus through the mountains. Lets hope the rainy season abates in a few weeks and things dry up. The trip is through back country mountain roads in Guatemala and Salvador, to save time. Undoubtedly going to be a hair raising trip.

It is 6:30 a.m. and the nighting gale birds are chirping and singing their beautiful songs, on the branches of the orange tree outside our hammock room window, while the flowers are blooming like crazy in the window shutters, with all this rain. The birds wake us with song and close the evening with very loud songs. Everything is okay with the world here. Even though there are rain showers, lowering cloud cover, it is a fine day for the rainy season. With a pot of water on the butane burner, to make some nice hot morning tea, with a tot of local rum, some local raw flavorful and healthy brown sugar, a bit of imported condensed milk and a dollop of fresh local raw bees honey in the tea; my hammock, a book, the cable tv and warm weather, all is right in the world. I would rather be here than anywhere else I can think of, reclining in my living room hammock. It is warm and peaceful, relaxed and comfortable. Certainly I do not envy people living in anxiety and fear, in places like Iceland, the USA and European countries. Those foreigners seem to always be living from one crisis to another. Nope, things are great here in Western Belize, despite the temporary floods.