Saturday, November 15, 2008

Western Belize is not in recession, but the Nation may be?


With declining GDP rate for two quarters or more, by US standards, Belize is now in RECESSION. In the past, GDP percentage has been artificially boosted by the last government borrowing and spending. The new UDP government this year has been borrowing but we haven't seen any spending yet? GDP rate is about 1.5 % of which 1.2 % is productive private sector exports. To stay even with population growth, the country of Belize requires a GDP rate of 3.2 %.
A hurricane last year doing crop damages. A once in a life time FLOOD this year doing more crop damages, though not as much as expected. The loss of the Williamson sewing factory, much wasted expenditure of time on fighting with the Opposition PUP by the incumbent UDP, poor sugar crops in which markets go unfilled, declining sugar prices by a double crossing European Union open trading deal just signed. All these things have contributed to a shrinking economy. UDP fiscal mismanagement have also played a part, as their new government obviously do not understand strong conservative fiscal management policies. A good third of the UDP CABINET are giving the impression they are concentrating on using the government for self enrichment and to HELL with the country. Will the recession turn into a depression? Will inflation now at 9% go even higher? Will the nation of Belize default on it's debts, particularly since we have new ones by the new government? All serious questions for serious people.

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