Friday, October 16, 2009

Side effects of world oil wars effecting Belize.


The news around the world, sort of effecting Belize is getting interesting. Mrs. Clinton, is over representing the USA in Russia. Apparently she is threatening WAR. Not sure what kind of war, but probably economic of some kind? The cause of the threats are because RUSSIA and CHINA are just signing off on a new agreement to conduct trade between China and Russia in Rubles and Yuan?

China is buying oodles of oil and natural gas from Russia and will sell them manufactured goods, I guess?

The idea is to cut out using the US DOLLAR as the INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY.

Russia has become the number one leader in oil exports in the whole world, surpassing the Arabian states of the Persian Gulf. The Arab producers have passed PEAK OIL production in the Persian Gulf anyway and their population have grown so much, and their cities are reliant on the one crop economy ( OIL ) that declining revenues are now hurting them. They are starting to suggest that the industrial world is going to have to subsidize their economies in Arabia. They can no longer financially make it. Especially if the USA quits buying oil from them and prices drop in the next five years.

The USA is shifting to a NATURAL GAS economy for energy. This is going to make them independent of Arabian oil in less than five years. The USA gets most of it’s oil from Venezuela anyway nowadays. Though Chavez has started a shift in marketing oil to CHINA and INDIA. Supposed to be a five year plan of his to do away with using the US dollar as a reserves currency?

Chavez has started the BANCO del SUR with some other countries and these are not members of ALBA either. Forget who, but Brazil is one of them. They are working on a new currency of the Americas, to rival the EURO and the US dollar. This is to be called the SUCRE. I fully agree with that, if they can get it done fast. The whole world is worried about the decline of the USA, and in particular the worth of the US dollar, which is currently the World INTERNATIONAL TRADING CURRENCY. The USA is the world's biggest importer and exporter. The USA is also Belize's biggest trading partner.

The world crisis is mostly over the US dollar and it’s worth. Apparently gold is not backing the money anymore and they are just printing money at the Federal Reserve. The USA government has a move afoot to remove printing money, or USA dollars, from the private Federal Reserve and return the function to the US Treasury. This has plenty of people worried. Inflation could be the result. I had been thinking of putting our pitiable small US dollar savings in Guatemala Quetzals myself. I’m very nervous about the USA too. It is just that the QUETZAL loses 6% annually in a planned economic devaluation. The only way I can think to make that work, is to buy land with water frontage in Guatemala. I’d rather have cash though. But where to save your money these days? I notice the Colombian peso is getting stronger again against the US dollar?

Lan Sluder printed an interesting article the other day, that outlined and compared, how while CHINA is big in the news, as being rich in TRILLIONS of dollars from exporting, that in fact the article stated that the USA still EXPORTS 60% more goods than CHINA does. So one cannot put the USA out of supremacy yet. A nation’s wealth is based on exporting.

Belize needs to export more. This brings in foreign exchange, which strengthens the local living standards and economy. The local Belizean/Chinese are teaching us a lesson in commerce. In that supermarkets dealing in food are successful, in both good times and bad times, as the growing world population still has to eat and buy their food. From this we can extrapolate at this particular time in Belize history, we need to concentrate on encouraging entrepreneurs to produce exportable processed food goods. We could copy the food packaging processing technology from Mexico and Brazil. How we can do that when the country of Belize is bankrupt is a political problem. For me, they can DEFAULT on that SUPER BOND. In the longer and intermediate term, even any cash shortages caused by doing so from foreign lending institutions would not last more than two or three years. The problem of cash flow is universal around the world right now. Europe has it. The USA has it. Everybody but China and Russia has it for the time being. Only the big banks in the USA, re-financed by US taxpayers and DEMOCRATS are making money these days. Salaries in China are rising and workers are not inclined to go back to factories in big industrialized cities they say, at the old salaries. So Chinese economic power is likely to level off anyway over the next decade.

The Europeans are stepping up their investment in South America. Massive investments in all kinds of manufacturing, processing and land buying. Big chain stores expanding from Europe throughout Latin America. China is also investing in South America, and in AFRICA also.

I can’t for the life of me figure out what the USA is exporting that makes it still the powerhouse it is? I know BOEING airplanes and military hardware are major items.

Funny that, South America and Central America is flooded with immense amounts of arms and ammunition. Yet there isn’t a single factory building arms within South America. Remember the PUP under MUSA signed an agreement with the USA that we would not manufacture arms and ammunition in Belize to protect USA armaments market share? What a crazy thing MUSA did. You can produce police arms, army weapons and even security guard shotguns right in Belize in a small backyard cottage industry. All you need is a lathe ( from China ) and a couple of small drill presses. We already have these tools in Belize and the capability. Could we sell and outfit the neighboring Guatemalan military and police forces as a start? Sure we could, that would be a political decision to tie two neighbors together. But not with the craziness in laws that MUSA passed under USA competitive pressure. Exports are the name of the game and small manufacturing.

For the future, both the USA and Belize are going to be getting oil from Venezuela. Could we trade arms made in Belize for Venezuelan oil? Not under the current laws in Belize. What a crazy Prime Minister, MUSA was?

There is a huge market for financial instruments and trading facilities, which comprises mostly of computers and technical people for need investment assets. Particularly with the YUAN, the new SUCRE as well as the good old standbys the Euro and US dollar. Will Belize be able to use our new trained University graduates and start something up here in currency trading, or offering of bonds and certificates of deposits for these foreign currencies?

There is going to be a new computer revolution very quickly. The new computers are going to be no bigger than a cigarette package. That is coming out of the USA invention matrix. Still need a big keyboard and screen though, if I was buying. Changing technology is going to change the export product flows.

If CARICOM were serious and we know they are not. They would buy a few ships at that big anchorage of hundreds of idle freighters off SINGAPORE, that are sitting idle. Bring them to the Caribbean for internal freight. Hundreds of freighters sitting at anchor for sale with no freight business. Could get a few ships dirt cheap.

Belize has the proven capability to design and build small aircraft. One has to wonder why some entrepreneur does not build the Belize Coast Guard, a small radio controlled drone, with a TV camera for patrolling the Great Barrier Reef from Coast Guard Headquarters. You could use a simple ROTAX engine as used by ultra lights in Belize. All of this technology is off the shelf. Nothing to be invented here, but if you sold a couple to the local Belize Coast Guard for patrolling, maybe other countries would buy them too? Voila! Another backyard shed business started in Belize. EXPORTS MON! That is the only future this bankrupt government has, if they could realize it and do something about encouraging it, instead of just bureaucratic and political hot air and bombast, waiting for the private sector to try. Then hit them with bureaucratic harassment, fines and myriad permits and licenses from dysfunctional Belmopan bureaucracies.

In the meantime the USA is worried about their supremacy and the US dollar as an international currency. I think Belize should encourage Venezuela with this new SUCRE as an alternative to make our hemisphere more competitive and self sufficient.

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