BELIZE DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBATE, INSIDE THE PRIVATE SECTOR BELIZE.

.50 cents on the dollar too high in my opinion.   FIVE CENTS on the dollar is better.  Run it down to the wire, just before a default and give them something back.





--- On Sun, 7/1/12, innovate belize <innovatebelize@gmail.com> wrote:

It is rear in life that you have a "arbitrage opportunity" (i.e., a way to make a riskless profit)

We should just use  Central Bank  reserves(right pocket) create a "Belize patriot fund" (left pocket) use the left pocket funded by the right pocket buy back the bond at 50 cents on the dollar this would reduce our debt by more than US$200m.

Since we would also own the credit default swaps that insure the discounted bonds then IF we decide to default and

not pay the coupon due in Aug then that would trigger the CDS insurance that  would make us "whole" by paying us the other US$300m plus. We would be the first country in the world that would have defaulted on itself and owed zero dollars and hurt no investor. If you understand what i am saying then you understand why the US had to bailout insurance giant AIG.

On Sun, Jul 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM, Wendy Auxillou <wendy_auxillou@yahoo.com> wrote:
It looks like they are trying to lump the nationalization costs into the new debt structuring, upgrading the SUPER BOND to a new MEGA BOND.

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Ashcroft claims affect Belize restructuring

IFR 1940 30 June to 6 July 2012 | By Christopher Spink

Belize has indicated it wants to roll the disputed claims of former shareholders in its telecoms and electricity companies in with the liabilities relating to its US$544m bond due 2029 as part of a wider restructuring of its estimated US$1.5bn total debts.

--- On Fri, 6/29/12, innovate belize <innovatebelize@gmail.com> wrote:

From: innovate belize <innovatebelize@gmail.com>

Subject: Bz-Culture: What to do with the Belize superbond

To: bz-culture@psg.com, belize@lists.belizeculture.com
Date: Friday, June 29, 2012, 9:31 AM

The fact that the current superbond trades at such depressed levels suggests that, at least theoretically, there is room for mutually beneficial gains for both bondholders and the government. 

Options:

1. Considering the low prices of the superbonds, Central Bank can use its reserves, which were around 4 months of imports at the end of 2011, in order to secretly repurchase 8.5% notes at 50 cents on the dollar and then refinanced the amount with a multilateral at an interest rate of perhaps 3%.(insert Vice President Joe Biden comment about Obamacare here ) 


2. Elimination of the bond amortization which is supposed to start in 2019 would create a win-win situation Since Belize would have difficulty making such amortization payments anyway.


3.The GOB could sell "carbon stocks" to foreign governments of industrialized countries wishing
to comply with international efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
from deforestation and forest degradation (known as REDD or REDD+). As an example, Norway’s $1 billion USD REDD+ investment in Indonesia. 

4. The alternative approach would be to follow Ecuador’s example and default on moral grounds and attacked the legitimacy of the debt.

Notes:

Why Belize "Creditors Committee" who owns over $300m of the $547m bond wants all investors to be treated equally.

1. Reconciliation between Prime Minister Barrow and Lord Michael Ashcroft is

notable because Ashcroft used to be a significant holder of Belize debt when holdings were made public during

the 2007 exchange; wonder if Ashcroft continues to hold large amounts of debt and if he is one of the

bondholders with whom the government wants to negotiate.

2 notices were sent through Clearstream to bondholders asking them to voluntarily reveal their identities to the government of Belize 

 in late April