Friday, November 30, 2012


    Will cause much more trouble down the road than it is worth.

  Any ICJ process will exacerbate current good feelings between Guatemala and Belize as economic partners, and what is already an independent nation of Belize by United Nations vote.


   Ray - Colombia and Nicaragua are the countries you have in mind. Colombia didn't like the ICJ ruling on their land and sea dispute with Nicaragua so they have decided not to accept it and have now withdrawn from ever participating in the ICJ again.
   There are a number of lessons out of the mess as you call it (which is quite accurate) for Belize and the ICJ. The most obvious is that an ICJ ruling will not solve the problem and, in fact, increase the stress and tension levels for all involved. 
   There is a Facebook page dealing with the Belize/Guatemala issue called "Belize, Sovereign And Free - No ICJ!" should you be interested. There are some links to the Colombia/Nicaragua issue there in addition to the regular material....
   This particular page was set up by Mr. Paco Smith of Belize City. There was some interesting discussion and debate recently with a Guatemalan chap. He held up their side of the argument quite well and kept it all civilized despite several highly informed Belizeans like Paco, Wil Maheia, and others taking him on.
  His remarks convinced me more than ever that unless Guatemala were to agree to a total "de-Beliceization" campaign if they lose there is no point in carrying out this exercise. Their kids are taught in school from the get-go about the issue and it will take years for them to be de-programmed. All their textbooks will have to be changed, official maps in public facilities replaced, etc. It would cost a fortune and they will certainly never do it anyway. So the issue will never go away and a ruling in favor of Belize will likely change nothing. 
   I keep trying to find some merit in this ICJ process. I have followed Lisa Shoman's comments on this for quite some time. Certainly she is as informed on the issue as much as any Belizean out there. She is even part of the process. But every time I follow the process to the possible outcomes and look at the risk/reward ratio I see a bet I would not place. Too much risk for very little reward with a high financial cost on top of thanks...

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