Wednesday, October 3, 2012

The economy of Belize is doing well as it ever has! 2012.


  The only problem is the chain and ball around the neck, remains; of a fancy embezzlement scheme that went on under the PUP political party.  They stole big style are the allegations.  That debt or credit in the name of the people of Belize remains outstanding and represents 47% of the total debt of Belize.  Over half a billion USA, on a country with revenues of around $600 million Bz, or $300 USA to run the country.  Total debt of Belize is over 100% of GDP.  An impossible number to service on known revenues.  Restructuring of that portion of the debt is underway.  Bond holders are expected to take a haircut, or write off loss, and a discount on interest payments. Some changes to the clauses to allow the government of the day to pay back, by borrowing someplace else at lower interest rates.
  The remaining debt of GDP ratio is still over 53%.  So debt management and cash flows leave much to be desired by the political guys and bureaucracy that run the country at any given time.  Outside of the debt problems the country is progressing well economically, compared to the small population level.

  The rest of the fellow CARICOM countries lost their SUGAR and CACAO industries.  Belize is the only CARICOM country to succeed in fending off the financial disaster to these two well established industries and have recently by-passed the financial cliff in the SUGAR industry and looking to expand a lot in production.  CACAO is going from strength to strength and all the crop as it expands, is pre-sold.  Everybody else in the CARICOM countries gave up on both of these raw commodity supplies. They let these two agriculture industries collapse and disappear.  Foolish people.

  There are a number of agriculture crops going to replace both CACAO and SUGAR, but the research work hasn't been done yet.  You can be sure though, that one day and it is a slow process, other agriculture commodities are going to compete for the limited lands available and now used both for sugar and cacao and those two crops now high in our economy, will be eventually be replaced by more lucrative crops.  Jatropha seeds seems it might be one of them, for making of bio diesel.  Got purchasers crying for a monthly load of ten tons, but we don't produce at that level yet. Cardamom is another possibility.  Our neighbor produced 500 tons of cardamom a few years ago and is now producing 3300 tons a year for export.  It turned out to be the biggest foreign exchange earner in Guatemala, until recently; when oil exports and new oil wells replaced Cardamom spice as the major export foreign exchange earner. Cardamom spice is the highest priced spice in the world.  Still in short demand.  All kinds of potentials and we wait for the population to grow big enough to take advantage of them.  There is a shortage of entrepreneurs and we are working on that.  We also need some of these type people for a new paradigm shift, coming from the industrial belt of India, to bootstrap new segments of our possible exports and foreign exchange earners.

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