BELIZE SIX YEARS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 2012 to 2018.

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS IN BELIZE FOR 2012 AND THROUGH NEXT SIX YEARS TO 2018.

The big issues priority wise for infra-structure in Belize are getting electricity out to ALL rural dwellers in the Nation. This is the challenge facing BEL.

Electric production has to be somehow tripled or more. We produce half our electricity right now and buy the other half from Mexico. BEL and the supply system is underperforming badly. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT follows the availability of electricity. Without electricity there can be no development. You need machines that run on electricity. Electricity demand from a stagnant supply is increasing at 20% per annum. If we are to develop, we must supply that demand from our own resources.

For 15 years incumbent governments in Belize have failed to create NET METERING legislation. Thus unleashing the pent up entrepreneurial capability of the growing Belizean population, to produce electricity. The next government needs to make this a campaign pledge.

The other factor is INTERNET SERVICE nationwide. To all rural dwellers. Given electricty and internet availability, both education, foreign markets and development will bloom. Without it, we remain stagnant, stuck in a colonial relic TIME WARP.

PROJECTIONS FOR THE NEXT SIX YEARS indicate we will have austerity government due to the high NATIONAL DEBT TO GDP RATIO. Six years of strong austerity, ( government spending ) could cut the Debt to GDP ratio from 85% to 42%. This has implications. The last few years, GRANTS have been funding most of our development and infra-structure. This needs to continue, but actually it needs to be expanded by identifying GRANT PROJECTS. Lots of money out in the world willing to help Belize. We only have to ask. So, for the next six years, the percentage of infra structure projects needs to be stepped up tenfold, financed by GRANTS. Or Grants through NGO´s. Otherwise we as a country will continue to stagnate. We cannot keep up with population growth. The new economic giants in the world to start pestering for GRANTS are Brazil, Canada, China ( mainland ), Russia and India.

Economically, the USA is still the leader in the world. However, 20 to 35 years out, the USA will slip to FOURTH PLACE. Still important and not shabby. But Belizeans need to be cognisant that RUSSIA in world trade will become bigger than the USA, as also MAINLAND CHINA.
The shopping sprees by chartered plane trips from mainland China to LONDON for this Christmas shopping holiday, had to do with TAX FREE SHOPPING. I don´t know how that works, but DUTY FREE SHOPPING in Belize for foreign tourism is as big a DRAW, as are the Mayan temples and islands and scuba diving. The whole idea of making Belize a nationwide TAX FREE SHOPPING ZONE FOR TOURISM needs some work, by the bureaucrats. They need to change their existing ideas and paradigm.