Sunday, August 26, 2012

DOUG SINGH TV SHOW AND CENTRAL BANK BIGWIGS COMMENTS ON SUPERBOND

THE DOUG SINGH SHOW, THE REAL DEAL ON SUNDAY TV

  Saw the tv show and he had the two top bigwigs from Central Bank explaining the rational behind the Superbond negotiations.  Interesting a bit.

  One gets the feeling that Central bank bigwigs propose and the political party disposes.  So what they recommend is hedged toward clerical activities rather than usable stuff.

  From the outside looking in; the explanations and rational were interesting, but from a private sector investor viewpoint here in Belize, one got the feeling they were immersed in minutia, looking and explaining about the individual trees, rather than looking at the forest.

  Generally speaking the SUPERBOND is important in the overall picture, but not the most important thing. It is only about 10% of government revenue. GDP is the most important thing.  The SUPERBOND IS LIKE AN ACCIDENT, but it will not effect the macro economics of Belize.  The GDP has peaked under the UDP and is now trending downward and from our Western outlook, it is going to continue for the next three years and possibly five or six years.  It is easy to see that GDP and revenues are going to drop below the level necessary to keep this current set of government employees in jobs.  As the government contracts, the GDP will contract faster.  The only thing that can alter the macro picture of the Belize economy, is by increasing GDP.   We are looking at the next term, or election by possibly the UDP.  That means accelerated LOAN BORROWING again after the next election and the vicious cycle of spending more than we make will start again,especially if the dumb PUP get in power in voters reaction to this trending downturn.
  The answer to increasing GDP is by introducing and encouraging LIGHT MANUFACTURING EXPORTS.  SAD TO SAY; NOBODY IN THE GOVERNMENT, EITHER THE POLITICANS OR BUREAUCRACY IN THE PAST THREE YEARS, HAS SHOWN ANY CAPABILITY TO HANDLE THIS HOT BUTTON ISSUE.  THEY JUST DON'T KNOW HOW!  BELTRAID DID BLOW THEIR TRUMPET, ABOUT TEACHING HAIR BRAIDING CLASSES THEY OFFERED.
  You cannot get yourself out of debt, or a downtrending GDP, by loan borrowing.  Only by growing the GDP.  Maybe we need more immigrants from China and Japan?  5000 more of each would make a nice mix.  Otherwise it is back to colonial times and the cycle of borrowing more than we can pay, ALL OVER AGAIN.

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