Wednesday, August 29, 2012

TV SHOW IN BELIZE ON BOND NEGOTIATIONS WITH CENTRAL BANK

Ambassador Mark Espat and Big Wig lady from Central Bank where on TV last night, discussing SUPER BOND issues.

  I only saw one glaring mistake, by the Central Bank lady.  She said; Central Bank were making their assumptions going forward on ability to pay, based on the current 2% GDP rate.  She also explained in the last time, during the PUP arrangement, the Super bond was created with a 4.5% GDP projection, during that time.  I can see the 4.5% GDP rate used at that time, because the PUP were desperate to sell a pig in a poke idea to bondholders.  The 4.5% GDP assumption back then, she said, was a serious error.  I don't think it was an error but deliberate to coax bondholders to take the bonds.
  That said; I am very doubtful that current bondholders are going to come to any agreement with GOB and there was no discussion at all on the TV show last night, for the scenario of a default.  Just calming, soothing noises, that everything was planned.  YEAH SURE !!!!!
  There was no talk about PLAN B, the litigation scene, and we have heard nothing about moving GOB assets out of the USA, meaning mostly the CASH RESERVES.  Maybe GOB is going to do it, but I am doubtful.  Lot of nonsense talk about showing good faith and all that hype.  Move GOB assets out of the USA, right now, you crazy fools.  If you don't, you don't deserve your positions in government.  Will there be litigation?  It is only a fool that would not plan for it. When you are prepared nothing happens.  But be prepared, or you are derelict. The USA is a litigous society, it is as common as cleaning your teeth every morning.

  Regarding the Central Bank view and projection going forward of 2% GDP, that is foolish.  You know it too?  We will have NEGATIVE GDP within this UDP term of office.  With declining oil exports a huge chunk of the GDP, and collapsing BANANA exports, due to the US TREASURY conducting covert, assymetrical economic warfare on the Belize small economy, there is no place else that the GDP can go, but DOWN!  It is an inverse ratio between the cost and size of government and the government revenue from taxation.  If government revenues drop and obviously they are going to drop and are doing so right now, the size of government has to shrink, or the economy which is shrinking, has to shrink even more and inflation going up.  Only BORROWING LOANS can artificially keep the GDP level up, which the PUP did before, but then this loan and bond scenario simply cycles all over again with new political players at the helm.

  I can understand the wish for Belizeans to show good faith, with bond holders.  But if you don't prepare your PLAN B, the series of LITIGATION court cases and seizures of government assets, present and in the future over time in the USA, you sure as hell don't know what you are doing?  It doesn't work that way in their world mon!

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